Multi-scale Predictions of Drug Resistance Epidemiology Identify Design Principles for Rational Drug Design. 2020

Scott M Leighow, and Chuan Liu, and Haider Inam, and Boyang Zhao, and Justin R Pritchard
The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Biomedical Engineering, University Park, PA 16802, USA.

Rationally designing drugs that last longer in the face of biological evolution is a critical objective of drug discovery. However, this goal is thwarted by the diversity and stochasticity of evolutionary trajectories that drive uncertainty in the clinic. Although biophysical models can qualitatively predict whether a mutation causes resistance, they cannot quantitatively predict the relative abundance of resistance mutations in patient populations. We present stochastic, first-principle models that are parameterized on a large in vitro dataset and that accurately predict the epidemiological abundance of resistance mutations across multiple leukemia clinical trials. The ability to forecast resistance variants requires an understanding of their underlying mutation biases. Beyond leukemia, a meta-analysis across prostate cancer, breast cancer, and gastrointestinal stromal tumors suggests that resistance evolution in the adjuvant setting is influenced by mutational bias. Our analysis establishes a principle for rational drug design: when evolution favors the most probable mutant, so should drug design.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009154 Mutation Any detectable and heritable change in the genetic material that causes a change in the GENOTYPE and which is transmitted to daughter cells and to succeeding generations. Mutations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000068877 Imatinib Mesylate A tyrosine kinase inhibitor and ANTINEOPLASTIC AGENT that inhibits the BCR-ABL kinase created by chromosome rearrangements in CHRONIC MYELOID LEUKEMIA and ACUTE LYMPHOBLASTIC LEUKEMIA, as well as PDG-derived tyrosine kinases that are overexpressed in gastrointestinal stromal tumors. Alpha-(4-methyl-1-piperazinyl)-3'-((4-(3-pyridyl)-2-pyrimidinyl)amino)-p-tolu-p-toluidide,CGP 57148,CGP-57148,CGP57148B,Gleevec,Glivec,Imatinib,Imatinib Methanesulfonate,ST 1571,ST1571,STI 571,STI-571,STI571,CGP57148,Mesylate, Imatinib,Methanesulfonate, Imatinib
D000076722 Drug Development The entire process of bringing a new drug to the market. It includes both preclinical and clinical testing, and regulatory approval. Computational Prediction of Drug-Target Interactions,Drug Target Prediction,Medication Development,Pharmaceutical Development,Development, Drug,Development, Medication,Development, Pharmaceutical,Drug Target Predictions,Prediction, Drug Target,Target Prediction, Drug
D000483 Alleles Variant forms of the same gene, occupying the same locus on homologous CHROMOSOMES, and governing the variants in production of the same gene product. Allelomorphs,Allele,Allelomorph
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012492 Salts Substances produced from the reaction between acids and bases; compounds consisting of a metal (positive) and nonmetal (negative) radical. (Grant & Hackh's Chemical Dictionary, 5th ed) Salt
D013269 Stochastic Processes Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables. Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic
D015195 Drug Design The molecular designing of drugs for specific purposes (such as DNA-binding, enzyme inhibition, anti-cancer efficacy, etc.) based on knowledge of molecular properties such as activity of functional groups, molecular geometry, and electronic structure, and also on information cataloged on analogous molecules. Drug design is generally computer-assisted molecular modeling and does not include PHARMACOKINETICS, dosage analysis, or drug administration analysis. Computer-Aided Drug Design,Computerized Drug Design,Drug Modeling,Pharmaceutical Design,Computer Aided Drug Design,Computer-Aided Drug Designs,Computerized Drug Designs,Design, Pharmaceutical,Drug Design, Computer-Aided,Drug Design, Computerized,Drug Designs,Drug Modelings,Pharmaceutical Designs

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