Impact of law enforcement and increased traffic fines policy on road traffic fatality, injuries and offenses in Iran: Interrupted time series analysis. 2020

Milad Delavary Foroutaghe, and Abolfazl Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam, and Vahid Fakoor
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan, Iran.

Road traffic law enforcement was implemented on 1st April 2011 (the first intervention) and traffic ticket fines have been increased on 1st March 2016 (the second intervention) in Iran. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effects of the law enforcement on reduction in the incidence rate of road traffic fatality (IRRTF), the incidence rate of road traffic injuries (IRRTI) and the incidence rate of rural road traffic offenses (IRRRTO) in Iran. Interrupted time series analysis was conducted to evaluate the impact of law enforcement and increased traffic tickets fines. Monthly data of fatality on urban, rural and local rural roads, injuries with respect to gender and traffic offenses namely speeding, illegal overtaking and tailgating were investigated separately for the period 2009-2016. Results showed a reduction in the incidence rate of total road traffic fatality (IRTRTF), the incidence rate of rural road traffic fatality (IRRRTF) and the incidence rate of urban road traffic fatality (IRURTF) by -21.44% (-39.3 to -3.59, 95% CI), -21.25% (-31.32 to -11.88, 95% CI) and -26.75% (-37.49 to -16, 95% CI) through the first intervention which resulted in 0.383, 0.255 and 0.222 decline in casualties per 100 000 population, respectively. Conversely, no reduction was found in the incidence rate of local rural road traffic fatality (IRLRRTF) and the IRRTI. Second intervention was found to only affect the IRURTF with -26.75% (-37.49 to -16, 95% CI) which led to 0.222 casualties per 100 000 population. In addition, a reduction effect was observed on the incidence rate of illegal overtaking (IRIO) and the incidence rate of speeding (IRS) with -42.8% (-57.39 to -28.22, 95% CI) and -10.54% (-21.05 to -0.03, 95% CI which implied a decrease of 415.85 and 1003.8 in monthly traffic offenses per 100 000 vehicles), respectively. Time series analysis suggests a decline in IRTRTF, IRRRTF, and IRURTF caused by the first intervention. However, the second intervention found to be only effective in IRURTF, IRIO, and IRS with the implication that future initiatives should be focused on modifying the implementation of the traffic interventions.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007492 Iran A country bordering the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, and the Caspian Sea, between Iraq and Pakistan. The capital is Tehran. Islamic Republic of Iran
D008297 Male Males
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000063 Accidents, Traffic Accidents on streets, roads, and highways involving drivers, passengers, pedestrians, or vehicles. Traffic accidents refer to AUTOMOBILES (passenger cars, buses, and trucks), BICYCLING, and MOTORCYCLES but not OFF-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES; RAILROADS nor snowmobiles. Traffic Collisions,Traffic Crashes,Traffic Accidents,Accident, Traffic,Collision, Traffic,Collisions, Traffic,Crashes, Traffic,Traffic Accident,Traffic Collision
D001334 Automobile Driving The effect of environmental or physiological factors on the driver and driving ability. Included are driving fatigue, and the effect of drugs, disease, and physical disabilities on driving. Automobile Drivings,Driving, Automobile,Drivings, Automobile
D012424 Rural Population The inhabitants of rural areas or of small towns classified as rural. Rural Residence,Rural Communities,Rural Spatial Distribution,Communities, Rural,Community, Rural,Distribution, Rural Spatial,Distributions, Rural Spatial,Population, Rural,Populations, Rural,Residence, Rural,Rural Community,Rural Populations,Rural Residences,Rural Spatial Distributions
D014947 Wounds and Injuries Damage inflicted on the body as the direct or indirect result of an external force, with or without disruption of structural continuity. Injuries,Physical Trauma,Trauma,Injuries and Wounds,Injuries, Wounds,Research-Related Injuries,Wounds,Wounds and Injury,Wounds, Injury,Injury,Injury and Wounds,Injury, Research-Related,Physical Traumas,Research Related Injuries,Research-Related Injury,Trauma, Physical,Traumas,Wound
D015397 Program Evaluation Studies designed to assess the efficacy of programs. They may include the evaluation of cost-effectiveness, the extent to which objectives are met, or impact. Evaluation, Program,Family Planning Program Evaluation,Program Appropriateness,Program Effectiveness,Program Sustainability,Appropriateness, Program,Effectiveness, Program,Evaluations, Program,Program Evaluations,Program Sustainabilities,Sustainabilities, Program,Sustainability, Program
D057766 Policy A course or method of action selected to guide and determine present and future decisions. Policies

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