Validation of the 'paediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation prediction' model in a UK extracorporeal membrane oxygenation centre. 2020

Hari Krishnan Kanthimathinathan, and Sarah Webb, and David Ellis, and Margaret Farley, and Timothy J Jones
Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, Birmingham Children's Hospital, Birmingham, UK.

There is a need for a universal risk-adjustment model that may be used regardless of the indication and nature of neonatal or paediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. The 'paediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation prediction' model appeared to be a promising candidate but required external validation. We performed a validation study using institutional database of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation patients (2008-2019). We used the published paediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation prediction score calculator to derive estimated mortality based on the model in this cohort of patients in our institutional database. We used standardized mortality ratio, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test in 10 deciles to assess model performance. We analysed 154 extracorporeal membrane oxygenation episodes in 150 patients. About 53% of the patients were full term (age ⩽30 days and gestation at birth ⩾37 weeks) neonates. The commonest category of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support was cardiac (42%). The overall in-paediatric intensive care unit mortality was 37% (57/154) and the in-hospital mortality was 42% (64/154). Distribution of estimated mortality risk was similar to the derivation study. The calculated standardized mortality ratio was 0.81 based on the paediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation prediction model of risk-adjustment. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.55 (0.45-0.64) and Hosmer-Lemeshow-test p value <0.001 was unable to support goodness-of-fit. This small single-centre study with a small number of events was unable to validate the paediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation prediction-model of risk-adjustment. Although this remains the most promising of all the available models, further validation in larger data sets and/or refinement may be required before widespread use.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007223 Infant A child between 1 and 23 months of age. Infants
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D008297 Male Males
D005260 Female Females
D006113 United Kingdom Country in northwestern Europe including Great Britain and the northern one-sixth of the island of Ireland, located between the North Sea and north Atlantic Ocean. The capital is London. Great Britain,Isle of Man
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D015199 Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Application of a life support system that circulates the blood through an oxygenating system, which may consist of a pump, a membrane oxygenator, and a heat exchanger. Examples of its use are to assist victims of SMOKE INHALATION INJURY; RESPIRATORY FAILURE; and CARDIAC FAILURE. ECMO Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation,Oxygenation, Extracorporeal Membrane,Venoarterial ECMO,Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation,Venovenous ECMO,Venovenous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation,ECLS Treatment,ECMO Treatment,Extracorporeal Life Support,ECLS Treatments,ECMO Treatments,ECMO, Venoarterial,ECMO, Venovenous,Extracorporeal Life Supports,Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenations,Life Support, Extracorporeal,Membrane Oxygenation, Extracorporeal,Treatment, ECLS,Treatment, ECMO,Venoarterial ECMOs,Venovenous ECMOs
D015203 Reproducibility of Results The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results. Reliability and Validity,Reliability of Result,Reproducibility Of Result,Reproducibility of Finding,Validity of Result,Validity of Results,Face Validity,Reliability (Epidemiology),Reliability of Results,Reproducibility of Findings,Test-Retest Reliability,Validity (Epidemiology),Finding Reproducibilities,Finding Reproducibility,Of Result, Reproducibility,Of Results, Reproducibility,Reliabilities, Test-Retest,Reliability, Test-Retest,Result Reliabilities,Result Reliability,Result Validities,Result Validity,Result, Reproducibility Of,Results, Reproducibility Of,Test Retest Reliability,Validity and Reliability,Validity, Face
D018570 Risk Assessment The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988) Assessment, Risk,Benefit-Risk Assessment,Risk Analysis,Risk-Benefit Assessment,Health Risk Assessment,Risks and Benefits,Analysis, Risk,Assessment, Benefit-Risk,Assessment, Health Risk,Assessment, Risk-Benefit,Benefit Risk Assessment,Benefit-Risk Assessments,Benefits and Risks,Health Risk Assessments,Risk Analyses,Risk Assessment, Health,Risk Assessments,Risk Benefit Assessment,Risk-Benefit Assessments

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