Reasoning about epistemic possibilities. 2020

Marco Ragni, and P N Johnson-Laird
Cognitive Computation Lab, Institut für Informatik, Technische Fakultät, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Georges-Köhler-Allee, Geb. 052, 79110 Freiburg, Germany. Electronic address: ragni@cs.uni-freiburg.de.

Reasoning about epistemic possibilities - those based on knowledge - is fundamental in daily life. It is formalized in modal logics, of which there are infinitely many, based on the semantics of 'possible worlds'. An alternative psychological theory postulates that possibilities (and probabilities) in daily life are based on the human ability to construct mental models of finite alternatives, which can each be realized in an indefinite number of different ways. This account leads to three main predictions that diverge from normal modal logics. First, the assertion of an epistemic possibility, A, presupposes the possibility of not-A, in default of knowledge to the contrary. Second, reasoners condense multiple possibilities into one, contravening modal logics, but reducing the load on working memory, e.g.: When knowledge shows that this condensation would be inconsistent, reasoners resist it. Epistemic possibilities are akin to non-numerical probabilities, forming a scale that runs from impossible to certain. In contrast, epistemic necessities state a necessary condition for some other proposition, e.g.: "It is necessary that it rains tomorrow for the plants to survive." The article reports five experiments corroborating these predictions. Their results challenge current conceptions of human reasoning.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008128 Logic The science that investigates the principles governing correct or reliable inference and deals with the canons and criteria of validity in thought and demonstration. This system of reasoning is applicable to any branch of knowledge or study. (Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed & Sippl, Computer Dictionary, 4th ed) Logics
D008960 Models, Psychological Theoretical representations that simulate psychological processes and/or social processes. These include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Model, Mental,Model, Psychological,Models, Mental,Models, Psychologic,Psychological Models,Mental Model,Mental Models,Model, Psychologic,Psychologic Model,Psychologic Models,Psychological Model
D011340 Problem Solving A learning situation involving more than one alternative from which a selection is made in order to attain a specific goal.
D011582 Psychological Theory Principles applied to the analysis and explanation of psychological or behavioral phenomena. Social Cognitive Theory,Psychologic Theory,Psychological Theories,Theories, Psychological,Theory, Psychological,Cognitive Theories, Social,Cognitive Theory, Social,Psychologic Theories,Social Cognitive Theories,Theories, Psychologic,Theories, Social Cognitive,Theory, Psychologic,Theory, Social Cognitive
D003071 Cognition Intellectual or mental process whereby an organism obtains knowledge. Cognitive Function,Cognitions,Cognitive Functions,Function, Cognitive,Functions, Cognitive
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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