Re-examining the Meis Trial for Evidence of False-Positive Results. 2020

Baha Sibai, and George R Saade, and Anita F Das
Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School-UTHealth, Houston, and the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, Texas; and Das Consulting, Guerneville, California.

U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved 17α-hydroxyprogesterone caproate therapy is currently available to reduce recurrent preterm birth in the United States. This commentary reviews the original landmark Meis trial ("Prevention of Recurrent Preterm Delivery by 17 Alpha-Hydroxyprogesterone Caproate"), which led to conditional approval of 17α-hydroxyprogesterone caproate by the FDA in 2011. The recent PROLONG (Progestin's Role in Optimizing Neonatal Gestation) trial failed to confirm the original findings. The Meis trial was rigorously designed and conducted, with highly statistically significant results that should not be undermined by the negative results of PROLONG. Given that the United States has among the highest preterm birth rates in the world and that the predominant enrollment in PROLONG was outside the United States, the results of the "old" Meis trial should not be summarily dismissed. It would be detrimental to high-risk pregnant patients to inappropriately prioritize results of PROLONG over the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network's Meis trial (funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development). We assert PROLONG was underpowered, based on substantially lower observed preterm birth rates than anticipated, and therefore was a false-negative study, rather than the Meis trial being a false-positive study. Careful assessment of these two trials is critical as removal of 17α-hydroxyprogesterone caproate from the U.S. marketplace may have substantial effects on public health.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011247 Pregnancy The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH. Gestation,Pregnancies
D011372 Progestins Compounds that interact with PROGESTERONE RECEPTORS in target tissues to bring about the effects similar to those of PROGESTERONE. Primary actions of progestins, including natural and synthetic steroids, are on the UTERUS and the MAMMARY GLAND in preparation for and in maintenance of PREGNANCY. Gestagenic Agent,Progestagen,Progestagenic Agent,Progestational Agent,Progestational Compound,Progestational Hormone,Progestogen,Progestogens,Gestagen,Gestagen Effect,Gestagen Effects,Gestagenic Agents,Gestagenic Effect,Gestagenic Effects,Gestagens,Progestagenic Agents,Progestagens,Progestational Agents,Progestational Compounds,Progestational Hormones,Progestin,Progestin Effect,Progestin Effects,Progestogen Effect,Progestogen Effects,Agent, Gestagenic,Agent, Progestagenic,Agent, Progestational,Compound, Progestational,Effect, Gestagen,Effect, Gestagenic,Effect, Progestin,Effect, Progestogen,Effects, Gestagen,Effects, Gestagenic,Effects, Progestin,Effects, Progestogen,Hormone, Progestational
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000077713 17 alpha-Hydroxyprogesterone Caproate Hydroxyprogesterone derivative that acts as a PROGESTIN and is used to reduce the risk of recurrent MISCARRIAGE and of PREMATURE BIRTH. It is also used in combination with ESTROGEN in the management of MENSTRUATION DISORDERS. 17 alpha-Oxyprogesterone Capronate,17-Hydroxyprogesterone Capronate,17-alpha-Hydroxy-Progesterone Caproate,Delalutin,Hydroxyprogesterone Caproate,Hydroxyprogesterone Hexanoate,Makena,Neolutin,Oxyprogesterone Caproate,Prolutin Depot,Proluton Depot,17 Hydroxyprogesterone Capronate,17 alpha Hydroxy Progesterone Caproate,17 alpha Hydroxyprogesterone Caproate,17 alpha Oxyprogesterone Capronate,Caproate, 17-alpha-Hydroxy-Progesterone
D015203 Reproducibility of Results The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results. Reliability and Validity,Reliability of Result,Reproducibility Of Result,Reproducibility of Finding,Validity of Result,Validity of Results,Face Validity,Reliability (Epidemiology),Reliability of Results,Reproducibility of Findings,Test-Retest Reliability,Validity (Epidemiology),Finding Reproducibilities,Finding Reproducibility,Of Result, Reproducibility,Of Results, Reproducibility,Reliabilities, Test-Retest,Reliability, Test-Retest,Result Reliabilities,Result Reliability,Result Validities,Result Validity,Result, Reproducibility Of,Results, Reproducibility Of,Test Retest Reliability,Validity and Reliability,Validity, Face
D016032 Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic Works about clinical trials that involve at least one test treatment and one control treatment, concurrent enrollment and follow-up of the test- and control-treated groups, and in which the treatments to be administered are selected by a random process, such as the use of a random-numbers table. Clinical Trials, Randomized,Controlled Clinical Trials, Randomized,Trials, Randomized Clinical
D016896 Treatment Outcome Evaluation undertaken to assess the results or consequences of management and procedures used in combating disease in order to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and practicability of these interventions in individual cases or series. Rehabilitation Outcome,Treatment Effectiveness,Clinical Effectiveness,Clinical Efficacy,Patient-Relevant Outcome,Treatment Efficacy,Effectiveness, Clinical,Effectiveness, Treatment,Efficacy, Clinical,Efficacy, Treatment,Outcome, Patient-Relevant,Outcome, Rehabilitation,Outcome, Treatment,Outcomes, Patient-Relevant,Patient Relevant Outcome,Patient-Relevant Outcomes
D047928 Premature Birth CHILDBIRTH before 37 weeks of PREGNANCY (259 days from the first day of the mother's last menstrual period, or 245 days after FERTILIZATION). Preterm Birth,Birth, Premature,Birth, Preterm,Births, Premature,Births, Preterm,Premature Births,Preterm Births

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