Determinants of left atrial thrombus or spontaneous echo contrast in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. 2020

Deheng Han, and Yanan Chu, and Yakui Wu, and Xingxiang Wang
Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.

The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are well-established clinical scales to estimate the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the predictive power of the two scales concerning left atrial thrombus (LAT) or spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) has not been well investigated. Therefore, we investigated the predict power of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores concerning LAT/SEC; identified clinical, echocardiographic and laboratory predictors of LAT/SEC in addition to the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores; and derived a new scale to predict LAT/SEC accurately, it might improve thromboembolic risk stratification in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. We identified 1102 consecutive AF patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) for the purpose of the exclusion of LAT before catheter ablation, cardioversion or left atrial appendage occlusion. The clinical, echocardiographic and laboratory characteristics of patients were collected from the electronic medical record system. In the study, the prevalence of LAT/SEC was only 4.36%. In the multivariate logistic analysis, hypertension, left atrial enlargement, prior stroke/TIA, left ventricular dysfunction, and renal dysfunction were predictors of LAT/SEC. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that c-statistics of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores concerning LAT/SEC were 0.673 and 0.643, respectively. We derived a new scale composed of variables from the multivariate logistic analysis that showed a higher c-statistic value (0.761) than the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for the prediction of LAT/SEC. In our cohort, we found two variables not included in the CHA2DS2-VASc score (renal dysfunction, left atrial enlargement) were independent predictors of LAT/SEC. A new scale combining clinical, echocardiographic and laboratory predictors might improve thromboembolic risk stratification. And there is a great need to carry out a new prospective and multicenter study, with a population more homogenous and including all the determinants for LAT/SEC to establish the independent degree of each variable and the applicability in clinical practice, facilitating the emergence of a new score of thromboembolic risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001281 Atrial Fibrillation Abnormal cardiac rhythm that is characterized by rapid, uncoordinated firing of electrical impulses in the upper chambers of the heart (HEART ATRIA). In such case, blood cannot be effectively pumped into the lower chambers of the heart (HEART VENTRICLES). It is caused by abnormal impulse generation. Auricular Fibrillation,Familial Atrial Fibrillation,Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation,Persistent Atrial Fibrillation,Atrial Fibrillation, Familial,Atrial Fibrillation, Paroxysmal,Atrial Fibrillation, Persistent,Atrial Fibrillations,Atrial Fibrillations, Familial,Atrial Fibrillations, Paroxysmal,Atrial Fibrillations, Persistent,Auricular Fibrillations,Familial Atrial Fibrillations,Fibrillation, Atrial,Fibrillation, Auricular,Fibrillation, Familial Atrial,Fibrillation, Paroxysmal Atrial,Fibrillation, Persistent Atrial,Fibrillations, Atrial,Fibrillations, Auricular,Fibrillations, Familial Atrial,Fibrillations, Paroxysmal Atrial,Fibrillations, Persistent Atrial,Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillations,Persistent Atrial Fibrillations
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D013927 Thrombosis Formation and development of a thrombus or blood clot in BLOOD VESSELS. Atherothrombosis,Thrombus,Blood Clot,Blood Clots,Thromboses
D018570 Risk Assessment The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988) Assessment, Risk,Benefit-Risk Assessment,Risk Analysis,Risk-Benefit Assessment,Health Risk Assessment,Risks and Benefits,Analysis, Risk,Assessment, Benefit-Risk,Assessment, Health Risk,Assessment, Risk-Benefit,Benefit Risk Assessment,Benefit-Risk Assessments,Benefits and Risks,Health Risk Assessments,Risk Analyses,Risk Assessment, Health,Risk Assessments,Risk Benefit Assessment,Risk-Benefit Assessments

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