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Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea. 2020

Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, and Davi Casale Aragon, and Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.

BACKGROUND Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011024 Pneumonia, Viral Inflammation of the lung parenchyma that is caused by a viral infection. Pneumonias, Viral,Viral Pneumonia,Viral Pneumonias
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000073640 Betacoronavirus A genus of the family CORONAVIRIDAE which causes respiratory or gastrointestinal disease in a variety of mostly mammals. Human betacoronaviruses include HUMAN ENTERIC CORONAVIRUS; HUMAN CORONAVIRUS OC43; MERS VIRUS; and SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME-RELATED CORONAVIRUS. Members have either core transcription regulatory sequences of 5’-CUAAAC-3’ or 5’-CUAAAC-3’ and mostly have no ORF downstream to the N protein gene. HCoV-HKU1,Human coronavirus HKU1,Pipistrellus bat coronavirus HKU5,Rousettus bat coronavirus HKU9,Tylonycteris bat coronavirus HKU4,Betacoronaviruses
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D058873 Pandemics Epidemics of infectious disease that have spread to many countries, often more than one continent, and usually affecting a large number of people. Pandemic
D017934 Coronavirus A member of CORONAVIRIDAE which causes respiratory or gastrointestinal disease in a variety of vertebrates. Coronavirus, Rabbit,Coronaviruses,Rabbit Coronavirus,Coronaviruses, Rabbit,Rabbit Coronaviruses
D018352 Coronavirus Infections Virus diseases caused by the CORONAVIRUS genus. Some specifics include transmissible enteritis of turkeys (ENTERITIS, TRANSMISSIBLE, OF TURKEYS); FELINE INFECTIOUS PERITONITIS; and transmissible gastroenteritis of swine (GASTROENTERITIS, TRANSMISSIBLE, OF SWINE). Infections, Coronavirus,MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome),Middle East Respiratory Syndrome,Coronavirus Infection,Infection, Coronavirus

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