Bayesian estimation of the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in Hungarian dairy cattle herds. 2020

L Ozsvari, and Zs Lang, and A Monostori, and P Kostoulas, and I Fodor
Department of Veterinary Forensics and Economics, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Budapest, Hungary. Electronic address: ozsvari.laszlo@univet.hu.

Paratuberculosis is a chronic incurable disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), which leads to extensive economic losses on dairy farms, and may also pose serious public health risk to the consumers. The aim of our study was to estimate the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in commercial dairy cattle herds participating in a voluntary MAP testing programme that started in February 2018 in Hungary. Milk samples collected during official milk recording were used for MAP ELISA testing. A Bayesian two-stage hierarchical (herd and animal level) model was fitted to the data. Altogether, 26,437 cows from 51 herds were sampled, which represents 14.4 % of the Hungarian dairy cow population. The median herd size was 477 cows (interquartile range: 331-709). Each studied farm had at least one ELISA positive cow, resulting in a herd-level apparent prevalence of 100 %. The overall within herd apparent prevalence was 5.5 %. Herd-level true prevalence was estimated at 89.1 % [95 % credible interval (CrI): 80.3-95.6%]. Within the infected herds, the median animal-level true prevalence was 4.4 % (3.2-5.8%) for primiparous and 10.3 % (7.9-12.9%) for multiparous cows, respectively. The probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% among primiparous cows, within infected herds, was 17.8 %. Similarly, the probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% or 10 % among multiparous cows was 100 % and 56 %, respectively. Simulations assuming herd-level true prevalence varying from 50 to 100 % revealed high accuracy of our Bayesian model. Our study showed that a large percentage of the studied Hungarian dairy cattle herds was infected with MAP.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008892 Milk The off-white liquid secreted by the mammary glands of humans and other mammals. It contains proteins, sugar, lipids, vitamins, and minerals. Cow Milk,Cow's Milk,Milk, Cow,Milk, Cow's
D010283 Paratuberculosis A chronic GASTROENTERITIS in RUMINANTS caused by MYCOBACTERIUM AVIUM SUBSPECIES PARATUBERCULOSIS. Johne's Disease,Johne Disease,Disease, Johne,Disease, Johne's,Johnes Disease,Paratuberculoses
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D002417 Cattle Domesticated bovine animals of the genus Bos, usually kept on a farm or ranch and used for the production of meat or dairy products or for heavy labor. Beef Cow,Bos grunniens,Bos indicus,Bos indicus Cattle,Bos taurus,Cow,Cow, Domestic,Dairy Cow,Holstein Cow,Indicine Cattle,Taurine Cattle,Taurus Cattle,Yak,Zebu,Beef Cows,Bos indicus Cattles,Cattle, Bos indicus,Cattle, Indicine,Cattle, Taurine,Cattle, Taurus,Cattles, Bos indicus,Cattles, Indicine,Cattles, Taurine,Cattles, Taurus,Cow, Beef,Cow, Dairy,Cow, Holstein,Cows,Dairy Cows,Domestic Cow,Domestic Cows,Indicine Cattles,Taurine Cattles,Taurus Cattles,Yaks,Zebus
D002418 Cattle Diseases Diseases of domestic cattle of the genus Bos. It includes diseases of cows, yaks, and zebus. Bovine Diseases,Bovine Disease,Cattle Disease,Disease, Bovine,Disease, Cattle,Diseases, Bovine,Diseases, Cattle
D003612 Dairying Production, storage, and distribution of DAIRY PRODUCTS. Dairy Industry,Dairy Industries,Industries, Dairy,Industry, Dairy
D004797 Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay An immunoassay utilizing an antibody labeled with an enzyme marker such as horseradish peroxidase. While either the enzyme or the antibody is bound to an immunosorbent substrate, they both retain their biologic activity; the change in enzyme activity as a result of the enzyme-antibody-antigen reaction is proportional to the concentration of the antigen and can be measured spectrophotometrically or with the naked eye. Many variations of the method have been developed. ELISA,Assay, Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent,Assays, Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent,Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay,Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays,Immunosorbent Assay, Enzyme-Linked,Immunosorbent Assays, Enzyme-Linked
D005260 Female Females
D006814 Hungary A country in Europe, northwest of Romania, south of Slovakia, and east of Austria. The capital is Budapest.
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia

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