Radiomics of rectal cancer for predicting distant metastasis and overall survival. 2020

Mou Li, and Yu-Zhou Zhu, and Yong-Chang Zhang, and Yu-Feng Yue, and Hao-Peng Yu, and Bin Song
Department of Radiology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China.

BACKGROUND Rectal cancer (RC) patient stratification by different factors may yield variable results. Therefore, more efficient prognostic biomarkers are needed for improved risk stratification, personalized treatment, and prognostication of RC patients. OBJECTIVE To build a novel model for predicting the presence of distant metastases and 3-year overall survival (OS) in RC patients. METHODS This was a retrospective analysis of 148 patients (76 males and 72 females) with RC treated with curative resection, without neoadjuvant or postoperative chemoradiotherapy, between October 2012 and December 2015. These patients were allocated to a training or validation set, with a ratio of 7:3. Radiomic features were extracted from portal venous phase computed tomography (CT) images of RC. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis was used for feature selection. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the radiomics signature (Rad-score) and the clinicoradiologic risk model (the combined model). Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the models for predicting distant metastasis of RC. The association of the combined model with 3-year OS was investigated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS A total of 51 (34.5%) patients had distant metastases, while 26 (17.6%) patients died, and 122 (82.4%) patients lived at least 3 years post-surgery. The values of both the Rad-score (consisted of three selected features) and the combined model were significantly different between the distant metastasis group and the non-metastasis group (0.46 ± 0.21 vs 0.32 ± 0.24 for the Rad-score, and 0.60 ± 0.23 vs 0.28 ± 0.26 for the combined model; P < 0.001 for both models). Predictors contained in the combined model included the Rad-score, pathological N-stage, and T-stage. The addition of histologic grade to the model failed to show incremental prognostic value. The combined model showed good discrimination, with areas under the curve of 0.842 and 0.802 for the training set and validation set, respectively. For the survival analysis, the combined model was associated with an improved OS in the whole cohort and the respective subgroups. CONCLUSIONS This study presents a clinicoradiologic risk model, visualized in a nomogram, that can be used to facilitate individualized prediction of distant metastasis and 3-year OS in patients with RC.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D012004 Rectal Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the RECTUM. Cancer of Rectum,Rectal Cancer,Rectal Tumors,Cancer of the Rectum,Neoplasms, Rectal,Rectum Cancer,Rectum Neoplasms,Cancer, Rectal,Cancer, Rectum,Neoplasm, Rectal,Neoplasm, Rectum,Rectal Cancers,Rectal Neoplasm,Rectal Tumor,Rectum Cancers,Rectum Neoplasm,Tumor, Rectal
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D049451 Nomograms Graphical representation of a statistical model containing scales for calculating the prognostic weight of a value for each individual variable. Nomograms are instruments that can be used to predict outcomes using specific clinical parameters. They use ALGORITHMS that incorporate several variables to calculate the predicted probability that a patient will achieve a particular clinical endpoint. Partin Nomograms,Partin Tables,Nomogram,Nomogram, Partin,Nomograms, Partin,Partin Nomogram,Partin Table,Table, Partin,Tables, Partin
D059248 Chemoradiotherapy Treatment that combines chemotherapy with radiotherapy. Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy,Concomitant Chemoradiotherapy,Concomitant Radiochemotherapy,Concurrent Radiochemotherapy,Radiochemotherapy,Synchronous Chemoradiotherapy,Chemoradiotherapies,Chemoradiotherapies, Concomitant,Chemoradiotherapies, Concurrent,Chemoradiotherapies, Synchronous,Chemoradiotherapy, Concomitant,Chemoradiotherapy, Concurrent,Chemoradiotherapy, Synchronous,Concomitant Chemoradiotherapies,Concomitant Radiochemotherapies,Concurrent Chemoradiotherapies,Concurrent Radiochemotherapies,Radiochemotherapies,Radiochemotherapies, Concomitant,Radiochemotherapies, Concurrent,Radiochemotherapy, Concomitant,Radiochemotherapy, Concurrent,Synchronous Chemoradiotherapies
D020360 Neoadjuvant Therapy Preliminary cancer therapy (chemotherapy, radiation therapy, hormone/endocrine therapy, IMMUNOTHERAPY, HYPERTHERMIA, INDUCED etc.) that is given before the main therapy. Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation,Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy,Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Treatment,Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy,Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy,Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Treatment,Neoadjuvant Radiation,Neoadjuvant Radiation Therapy,Neoadjuvant Radiation Treatment,Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy,Neoadjuvant Systemic Therapy,Neoadjuvant Systemic Treatment,Neoadjuvant Treatment,Chemoradiation Therapy, Neoadjuvant,Chemoradiation Treatment, Neoadjuvant,Chemoradiation, Neoadjuvant,Chemoradiotherapy, Neoadjuvant,Chemotherapy Treatment, Neoadjuvant,Chemotherapy, Neoadjuvant,Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapies,Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Treatments,Neoadjuvant Chemoradiations,Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapies,Neoadjuvant Chemotherapies,Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Treatments,Neoadjuvant Radiation Therapies,Neoadjuvant Radiation Treatments,Neoadjuvant Radiations,Neoadjuvant Radiotherapies,Neoadjuvant Systemic Therapies,Neoadjuvant Systemic Treatments,Neoadjuvant Therapies,Neoadjuvant Treatments,Radiation Therapy, Neoadjuvant,Radiation Treatment, Neoadjuvant,Radiation, Neoadjuvant,Radiotherapy, Neoadjuvant,Systemic Therapy, Neoadjuvant,Systemic Treatment, Neoadjuvant,Therapy, Neoadjuvant,Therapy, Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation,Therapy, Neoadjuvant Radiation,Therapy, Neoadjuvant Systemic,Treatment, Neoadjuvant,Treatment, Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation,Treatment, Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy,Treatment, Neoadjuvant Radiation,Treatment, Neoadjuvant Systemic

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