Self-injurious behavior (SIB) is among the most dangerous concerns in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), often requiring detailed and tedious management methods. Sensor-based behavioral monitoring could address the limitations of these methods, though the complex problem of classifying variable behavior should be addressed first. We aimed to address this need by developing a group-level model accounting for individual variability and potential nonlinear trends in SIB, as a secondary analysis of existing data. Ten participants with ASD and SIB engaged in free play while wearing accelerometers. Movement data were collected from > 200 episodes and 18 different types of SIB. Frequency domain and linear movement variability measures of acceleration signals were extracted to capture differences in behaviors, and metrics of nonlinear movement variability were used to quantify the complexity of SIB. The multi-level logistic regression model, comprising of 12 principal components, explained > 65% of the variance, and classified SIB with > 75% accuracy. Our findings imply that frequency-domain and movement variability metrics can effectively predict SIB. Our modeling approach yielded superior accuracy than commonly used classifiers (~ 75 vs. ~ 64% accuracy) and had superior performance compared to prior reports (~ 75 vs. ~ 69% accuracy) This work provides an approach to generating an accurate and interpretable group-level model for SIB identification, and further supports the feasibility of developing a real-time SIB monitoring system.