Time-continuous and time-discrete SIR models revisited: theory and applications. 2020

Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
Next Generation Mobility Group, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max-Planck-Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Fassberg 17, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany.

Since Kermack and McKendrick have introduced their famous epidemiological SIR model in 1927, mathematical epidemiology has grown as an interdisciplinary research discipline including knowledge from biology, computer science, or mathematics. Due to current threatening epidemics such as COVID-19, this interest is continuously rising. As our main goal, we establish an implicit time-discrete SIR (susceptible people-infectious people-recovered people) model. For this purpose, we first introduce its continuous variant with time-varying transmission and recovery rates and, as our first contribution, discuss thoroughly its properties. With respect to these results, we develop different possible time-discrete SIR models, we derive our implicit time-discrete SIR model in contrast to many other works which mainly investigate explicit time-discrete schemes and, as our main contribution, show unique solvability and further desirable properties compared to its continuous version. We thoroughly show that many of the desired properties of the time-continuous case are still valid in the time-discrete implicit case. Especially, we prove an upper error bound for our time-discrete implicit numerical scheme. Finally, we apply our proposed time-discrete SIR model to currently available data regarding the spread of COVID-19 in Germany and Iran.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries

Related Publications

Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
June 2017, Journal of mathematical biology,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
November 1994, Mathematical biosciences,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
January 2000, Mathematical biosciences,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
November 2016, Physical review letters,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
January 1990, Journal of mathematical biology,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
December 2023, Journal of mathematical biology,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
April 2006, Bulletin of mathematical biology,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
December 2020, ISA transactions,
Benjamin Wacker, and Jan Schlüter
February 2024, Journal of Intelligence,
Copied contents to your clipboard!