Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae. 2020

Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
Burnett School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, United States of America.

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D013296 Streptococcus pneumoniae A gram-positive organism found in the upper respiratory tract, inflammatory exudates, and various body fluids of normal and/or diseased humans and, rarely, domestic animals. Diplococcus pneumoniae,Pneumococcus
D019020 Directed Molecular Evolution The techniques used to produce molecules exhibiting properties that conform to the demands of the experimenter. These techniques combine methods of generating structural changes with methods of selection. They are also used to examine proposed mechanisms of evolution under in vitro selection conditions. Evolution, Molecular, Directed,Molecular Evolution, Directed,In Vitro Molecular Evolution,Laboratory Molecular Evolution,Directed Molecular Evolutions,Evolution, Directed Molecular,Evolution, Laboratory Molecular,Evolutions, Directed Molecular,Evolutions, Laboratory Molecular,Laboratory Molecular Evolutions,Molecular Evolution, Laboratory,Molecular Evolutions, Directed,Molecular Evolutions, Laboratory
D022242 Pneumococcal Vaccines Vaccines or candidate vaccines used to prevent infections with STREPTOCOCCUS PNEUMONIAE. Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine,Pneumococcal Vaccine,Pneumovax,Pnu-Imune Vaccine,Pnu Imune Vaccine,PnuImune Vaccine,Polysaccharide Vaccine, Pneumococcal,Vaccine, Pneumococcal,Vaccine, Pneumococcal Polysaccharide,Vaccines, Pneumococcal

Related Publications

Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
May 2014, The American naturalist,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
December 2016, Theoretical population biology,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
July 1988, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
July 2023, Ecology and evolution,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
January 2008, PloS one,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
May 2016, Genome biology and evolution,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
June 1958, Journal of the American Dietetic Association,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
June 2012, The American naturalist,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
August 2008, Genetics,
Taj Azarian, and Pamela P Martinez, and Brian J Arnold, and Xueting Qiu, and Lindsay R Grant, and Jukka Corander, and Christophe Fraser, and Nicholas J Croucher, and Laura L Hammitt, and Raymond Reid, and Mathuram Santosham, and Robert C Weatherholtz, and Stephen D Bentley, and Katherine L O'Brien, and Marc Lipsitch, and William P Hanage
March 2004, Emerging infectious diseases,
Copied contents to your clipboard!