Prediction of vehicle occupants injury at signalized intersections using real-time traffic and signal data. 2021

Emmanuel Kidando, and Angela E Kitali, and Boniphace Kutela, and Mahyar Ghorbanzadeh, and Alican Karaer, and Mohammadreza Koloushani, and Ren Moses, and Eren E Ozguven, and Thobias Sando
Mercer University, United States. Electronic address: kidando_ey@mercer.edu.

Intersections are among the most dangerous roadway facilities due to the existence of complex movements of traffic. Most of the previous intersection safety studies are conducted based on static and highly aggregated data such as average daily traffic and crash frequency. The aggregated data may result in unreliable findings because they are based on averages and might not necessarily represent the actual conditions at the time of the crash. This study uses real-time event-based detection records, and crash data to develop predictive models for the vehicle occupants' injury severity. The three-year (2017-2019) data were acquired from the arterial highways in the City of Tallahassee, Florida. Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifiers were used to identify the important factors on the vehicle occupants' injury severity prediction. The performance comparison of the two classifiers revealed that the XGBoost has a higher balanced accuracy score than RF. Using the XGBoost classifier, five topmost influential factors on injury prediction were identified. The factors are the manner of the collision, through and right-turn traffic volume, arrival on red for through and right-turn traffic, split failure for through traffic, and delays for through and right-turn traffic. Moreover, the partial dependency plots of the influential variables are presented to reveal their impact on vehicle occupant injury prediction. The knowledge gained from this study will be useful in developing effective proactive countermeasures to mitigate intersection-related crash injuries in real-time.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003617 Dangerous Behavior Actions which have a high risk of being harmful or injurious to oneself or others. Behavior, Dangerous,Dangerousness,Hazardous Behavior,Behavior, Hazardous,Behaviors, Hazardous,Dangerous Behaviors,Hazardous Behaviors
D005431 Florida State bounded on east by the Atlantic Ocean, on the south by the Gulf of Mexico, on the west by Alabama and on the north by Alabama and Georgia.
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000063 Accidents, Traffic Accidents on streets, roads, and highways involving drivers, passengers, pedestrians, or vehicles. Traffic accidents refer to AUTOMOBILES (passenger cars, buses, and trucks), BICYCLING, and MOTORCYCLES but not OFF-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES; RAILROADS nor snowmobiles. Traffic Collisions,Traffic Crashes,Traffic Accidents,Accident, Traffic,Collision, Traffic,Collisions, Traffic,Crashes, Traffic,Traffic Accident,Traffic Collision
D014947 Wounds and Injuries Damage inflicted on the body as the direct or indirect result of an external force, with or without disruption of structural continuity. Injuries,Physical Trauma,Trauma,Injuries and Wounds,Injuries, Wounds,Research-Related Injuries,Wounds,Wounds and Injury,Wounds, Injury,Injury,Injury and Wounds,Injury, Research-Related,Physical Traumas,Research Related Injuries,Research-Related Injury,Trauma, Physical,Traumas,Wound

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