Bayesian optimization design for dose-finding based on toxicity and efficacy outcomes in phase I/II clinical trials. 2021

Ami Takahashi, and Taiji Suzuki
Department of Mathematical and Computing Science, School of Computing, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan.

In phase I trials, the main goal is to identify a maximum tolerated dose under an assumption of monotonicity in dose-response relationships. On the other hand, such monotonicity is no longer applied to biologic agents because a different mode of action from that of cytotoxic agents potentially draws unimodal or flat dose-efficacy curves. Therefore, biologic agents require an optimal dose that provides a sufficient efficacy rate under an acceptable toxicity rate instead of a maximum tolerated dose. Many trials incorporate both toxicity and efficacy data, and drugs with a variety of modes of actions are increasingly being developed; thus, optimal dose estimation designs have been receiving increased attention. Although numerous authors have introduced parametric model-based designs, it is not always appropriate to apply strong assumptions in dose-response relationships. We propose a new design based on a Bayesian optimization framework for identifying optimal doses for biologic agents in phase I/II trials. Our proposed design models dose-response relationships via nonparametric models utilizing a Gaussian process prior, and the uncertainty of estimates is considered in the dose selection process. We compared the operating characteristics of our proposed design against those of three other designs through simulation studies. These include an expansion of Bayesian optimal interval design, the parametric model-based EffTox design, and the isotonic design. In simulations, our proposed design performed well and provided results that were more stable than those from the other designs, in terms of the accuracy of optimal dose estimations and the percentage of correct recommendations.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D012107 Research Design A plan for collecting and utilizing data so that desired information can be obtained with sufficient precision or so that an hypothesis can be tested properly. Experimental Design,Data Adjustment,Data Reporting,Design, Experimental,Designs, Experimental,Error Sources,Experimental Designs,Matched Groups,Methodology, Research,Problem Formulation,Research Methodology,Research Proposal,Research Strategy,Research Technics,Research Techniques,Scoring Methods,Adjustment, Data,Adjustments, Data,Data Adjustments,Design, Research,Designs, Research,Error Source,Formulation, Problem,Formulations, Problem,Group, Matched,Groups, Matched,Matched Group,Method, Scoring,Methods, Scoring,Problem Formulations,Proposal, Research,Proposals, Research,Reporting, Data,Research Designs,Research Proposals,Research Strategies,Research Technic,Research Technique,Scoring Method,Source, Error,Sources, Error,Strategies, Research,Strategy, Research,Technic, Research,Technics, Research,Technique, Research,Techniques, Research
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004305 Dose-Response Relationship, Drug The relationship between the dose of an administered drug and the response of the organism to the drug. Dose Response Relationship, Drug,Dose-Response Relationships, Drug,Drug Dose-Response Relationship,Drug Dose-Response Relationships,Relationship, Drug Dose-Response,Relationships, Drug Dose-Response
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D017321 Clinical Trials, Phase I as Topic Works about studies performed to evaluate the safety of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques in healthy subjects and to determine the safe dosage range (if appropriate). These tests also are used to determine pharmacologic and pharmacokinetic properties (toxicity, metabolism, absorption, elimination, and preferred route of administration). They involve a small number of persons and usually last about 1 year. This concept includes phase I studies conducted both in the U.S. and in other countries. Clinical Trials, Phase I,Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase I,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase I,Human Microdosing Trial,Phase 1 Clinical Trial,Phase I Clinical Trial,Phase I Clinical Trials,Clinical Trials, Phase 1,Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase 1,Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase I as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase 1,Human Microdosing Trials,Microdosing Trials, Human,Phase 1 Clinical Trials,Microdosing Trial, Human,Trial, Human Microdosing,Trials, Human Microdosing
D017322 Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic Works about studies that are usually controlled to assess the effectiveness and dosage (if appropriate) of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques. These studies are performed on several hundred volunteers, including a limited number of patients with the target disease or disorder, and last about two years. This concept includes phase II studies conducted in both the U.S. and in other countries. Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase II as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase II as Topic
D020714 Maximum Tolerated Dose The highest dose of a biologically active agent given during a chronic study that will not reduce longevity from effects other than carcinogenicity. (from Lewis Dictionary of Toxicology, 1st ed) Maximal Tolerated Dose,Maximally Tolerated Dose,Dose, Maximal Tolerated,Dose, Maximally Tolerated,Dose, Maximum Tolerated,Doses, Maximal Tolerated,Doses, Maximally Tolerated,Doses, Maximum Tolerated,Maximal Tolerated Doses,Maximally Tolerated Doses,Maximum Tolerated Doses,Tolerated Dose, Maximal,Tolerated Dose, Maximally,Tolerated Dose, Maximum,Tolerated Doses, Maximal,Tolerated Doses, Maximally,Tolerated Doses, Maximum

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