A dynamic prediction model for prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure based on the trend of clinical indicators. 2021

Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, The Third Central Clinical College of Tianjin Medical University, No. 83, Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a dynamic syndrome, and sequential assessments can reflect its prognosis more accurately. Our aim was to build and validate a new scoring system to predict short-term prognosis using baseline and dynamic data in ACLF. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients with ACLF from three different hospitals in China. To construct the model, we analyzed a training set of 541 patients from two hospitals. The model's performance was evaluated in a validation set of 130 patients from another center. In the training set, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, WGO type, basic etiology, total bilirubin, creatinine, prothrombin activity, and hepatic encephalopathy stage were all independent prognostic factors in ACLF. We designed a dynamic trend score table based on the changing trends of these indicators. Furthermore, a logistic prediction model (DP-ACLF) was constructed by combining the sum of dynamic trend scores and baseline prognostic parameters. All prognostic scores were calculated based on the clinical data of patients at the third day, first week, and second week after admission, respectively, and were correlated with the 90-day prognosis by ROC analysis. Comparative analysis showed that the AUC value for DP-ACLF was higher than for other prognostic scores, including Child-Turcotte-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and COSSH-ACLF. The new scoring model, which combined baseline characteristics and dynamic changes in clinical indicators to predict the course of ACLF, showed a better prognostic ability than current scoring systems. Prospective studies are needed to validate these results.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D002908 Chronic Disease Diseases which have one or more of the following characteristics: they are permanent, leave residual disability, are caused by nonreversible pathological alteration, require special training of the patient for rehabilitation, or may be expected to require a long period of supervision, observation, or care (Dictionary of Health Services Management, 2d ed). For epidemiological studies chronic disease often includes HEART DISEASES; STROKE; CANCER; and diabetes (DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2). Chronic Condition,Chronic Illness,Chronically Ill,Chronic Conditions,Chronic Diseases,Chronic Illnesses,Condition, Chronic,Disease, Chronic,Illness, Chronic
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D065290 Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure Sudden liver failure in the presence of underlying compensated chronic LIVER DISEASE (e.g., LIVER CIRRHOSIS; HEPATITIS; and liver injury and failure) due to a precipitating acute hepatic insult. Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF),Liver Failure, Acute-On-Chronic,Acute On Chronic Liver Failure,Acute On Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF),Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failures,Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failures (ACLF),Failure, Acute-On-Chronic Liver,Failure, Acute-On-Chronic Liver (ACLF),Failures, Acute-On-Chronic Liver,Failures, Acute-On-Chronic Liver (ACLF),Liver Failure, Acute On Chronic,Liver Failure, Acute-On-Chronic (ACLF),Liver Failures, Acute-On-Chronic,Liver Failures, Acute-On-Chronic (ACLF)

Related Publications

Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
December 2021, JHEP reports : innovation in hepatology,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
December 2022, Journal of hepato-biliary-pancreatic sciences,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
January 2020, Risk management and healthcare policy,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
September 2015, Oncotarget,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
April 2020, Zhonghua gan zang bing za zhi = Zhonghua ganzangbing zazhi = Chinese journal of hepatology,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
August 2022, Hepatology international,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
November 2022, European journal of medical research,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
August 2016, Medicine,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
November 2016, The lancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology,
Zhenjun Yu, and Yu Zhang, and Yingying Cao, and Manman Xu, and Shaoli You, and Yu Chen, and Bing Zhu, and Ming Kong, and Fangjiao Song, and Shaojie Xin, and Zhongping Duan, and Tao Han
January 2010, ASAIO journal (American Society for Artificial Internal Organs : 1992),
Copied contents to your clipboard!