Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change. 2021

Mark A Titley, and Stuart H M Butchart, and Victoria R Jones, and Mark J Whittingham, and Stephen G Willis
Department of Biosciences, Durham University, DH1 3LE Durham, United Kingdom; mark.a.titley@durham.ac.uk s.g.willis@durham.ac.uk.

Underlying sociopolitical factors have emerged as important determinants of wildlife population trends and the effectiveness of conservation action. Despite mounting research into the impacts of climate change on nature, there has been little consideration of the human context in which these impacts occur, particularly at the global scale. We investigate this in two ways. First, by modeling the climatic niches of terrestrial mammals and birds globally, we show that projected species loss under climate change is greatest in countries with weaker governance and lower Gross Domestic Product, with loss of mammal species projected to be greater in countries with lower CO2 emissions. Therefore, climate change impacts on species may be disproportionately significant in countries with lower capacity for effective conservation and lower greenhouse gas emissions, raising important questions of international justice. Second, we consider the redistribution of species in the context of political boundaries since the global importance of transboundary conservation under climate change is poorly understood. Under a high-emissions scenario, we find that 35% of mammals and 29% of birds are projected to have over half of their 2070 climatic niche in countries in which they are not currently found. We map these transboundary range shifts globally, identifying borders across which international coordination might most benefit conservation and where physical border barriers, such as walls and fences, may be an overlooked obstacle to climate adaptation. Our work highlights the importance of sociopolitical context and the utility of a supranational perspective for 21st century nature conservation.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008322 Mammals Warm-blooded vertebrate animals belonging to the class Mammalia, including all that possess hair and suckle their young. Mammalia,Mammal
D011056 Political Systems The units based on political theory and chosen by countries under which their governmental power is organized and administered to their citizens. Political System,System, Political,Systems, Political
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D001717 Birds Warm-blooded VERTEBRATES possessing FEATHERS and belonging to the class Aves. Aves,Bird
D017752 Greenhouse Effect The effect of GREENHOUSE GASES and the resulting increase in world temperatures. The predicted health effects of such long-term climatic change include increased incidence of respiratory, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases. Effect, Greenhouse
D056727 Endangered Species An animal or plant species in danger of extinction. Causes can include human activity, changing climate, or change in predator/prey ratios. Threatened Species,Species, Endangered,Species, Threatened
D057231 Climate Change Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities. Change, Climate,Changes, Climate,Climate Changes

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