Flattening the curve is flattening the complexity of covid-19. 2021

Marcel Boumans
Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands. m.j.boumans@uu.nl.

Since the February 2020 publication of the article 'Flattening the curve' in The Economist, political leaders worldwide have used this expression to legitimize the introduction of social distancing measures in fighting Covid-19. In fact, this expression represents a complex combination of three components: the shape of the epidemic curve, the social distancing measures and the reproduction number [Formula: see text]. Each component has its own history, each with a different history of control. Presenting the control of the epidemic as flattening the curve is in fact flattening the underlying natural-social complexity. The curve that needs to be flattened is presented as a bell-shaped curve, implicitly suggesting that the pathogen's spread is subject only to natural laws. The [Formula: see text] value, however, is, fundamentally, a metric of how a pathogen behaves within a social context, namely its numerical value is affected by sociopolitical influences. The jagged and erratic empirical curve of Covid-19 illustrates this. Although the virus has most likely infected only a small portion of the total susceptible population, it is clear its shape has changed drastically. This changing shape is largely due to sociopolitical factors. These include shifting formal laws and policies, shifting individual behaviors as well as shifting various other social norms and practices. This makes the course of Covid-19 curve both erratic and unpredictable.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000085762 Physical Distancing Maintaining recommended amount of spatial separation between self and others. Physical Distance,Social Distancing,Distance, Physical,Distancing, Physical,Distancing, Social
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D050936 Basic Reproduction Number The expected number of new cases of an infection caused by an infected individual, amongst susceptible contacts only. Basic Reproductive Number,Basic Reproductive Ratio,Effective Reproduction Number,Effective Reproductive Number,R0 Basic Reproduction Number,RE Effective Reproduction Number,Re Effective Reproductive Number,Transmissibility Measures,Basic Reproduction Ratio,Basic Reproductive Rate,Basic Reproductive Numbers,Basic Reproductive Rates,Basic Reproductive Ratios,Effective Reproduction Numbers,Effective Reproductive Numbers,Rate, Basic Reproductive,Reproduction Number, Basic,Reproduction Number, Effective,Reproduction Ratio, Basic,Reproductive Number, Basic,Reproductive Number, Effective,Reproductive Rate, Basic,Reproductive Rates, Basic,Reproductive Ratio, Basic,Transmissibility Measure
D058872 Epidemics Sudden outbreaks of a disease in a country or region not previously recognized in that area, or a rapid increase in the number of new cases of a previous existing endemic disease. Epidemics can also refer to outbreaks of disease in animal or plant populations.

Related Publications

Marcel Boumans
June 2020, The Veterinary record,
Marcel Boumans
September 2022, Perspectives in public health,
Marcel Boumans
December 2020, Physica A,
Marcel Boumans
September 2020, Journal of epidemiology and community health,
Marcel Boumans
April 2022, Production and operations management,
Marcel Boumans
February 2021, Technological forecasting and social change,
Marcel Boumans
September 2022, History and philosophy of the life sciences,
Marcel Boumans
December 2020, Journal of global health,
Marcel Boumans
October 2021, IEEE control systems letters,
Copied contents to your clipboard!