Potential Distribution of the Biocontrol Agent Toxorhynchites rutilus By 2070. 2020

Daniel S Marshall, and Christopher J Butler
Department of Biology, University of Central Oklahoma, 100 N University Drive Box 89, Edmond, OK 73034.

Climate change projections indicate that mosquito distributions will expand to include new areas of North America, increasing human exposure to mosquito-borne disease. Controlling these vectors is imperative, as mosquito-borne disease incidence will rise in response to expansion of mosquito range and increased seasonality. One means of mosquito control used in the USA is the biocontrol agent, Toxorhynchites rutilus. Climate change will open new habitats for its use by vector control organizations, but the extent of this change in habitat is currently unknown. We used a maximum entropy approach to create species distribution models for Tx. rutilus under 4 climate change scenarios by 2070. Mean temperature of warmest quarter (22.6°C to 29.1°C), annual precipitation (1,025.15 mm to 1,529.40 mm), and precipitation seasonality (≤17.86) are the most important bioclimatic variables for suitable habitat. The center of current possible habitat distribution of Tx. rutilus is in central Tennessee. Depending upon the scenario, we expect centroids to shift north-northeast by 97.68 km to 280.16 km by 2070. The extreme change in area of greater than 50% suitable habitat probability is 141.14% with 99.44% area retained. Our models indicate limited change in current habitat as well as creation of new habitat. These results are promising for North American mosquito control programs for the continued and potential combat of vector mosquitoes using Tx. rutilus.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009032 Mosquito Control The reduction or regulation of the population of mosquitoes through chemical, biological, or other means. Control, Mosquito
D009033 Culicidae A family of the order DIPTERA that comprises the mosquitoes. The larval stages are aquatic, and the adults can be recognized by the characteristic WINGS, ANIMAL venation, the scales along the wing veins, and the long proboscis. Many species are of particular medical importance. Mosquitoes,Mosquitos,Mosquito
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D057231 Climate Change Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities. Change, Climate,Changes, Climate,Climate Changes
D061046 Biological Control Agents Organisms, biological agents, or biologically derived agents used strategically for their positive or adverse effect on the physiology and/or reproductive health of other organisms. Biological Control Agent,Biopesticide,Biological Pesticides,Biopesticides,Agent, Biological Control,Control Agent, Biological,Control Agents, Biological,Pesticides, Biological
D063147 Animal Distribution A process by which animals in various forms and stages of development are physically distributed through time and space. Animal Dispersal,Animal Dispersals,Animal Distributions,Dispersal, Animal,Dispersals, Animal,Distribution, Animal,Distributions, Animal

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