Sensitivity analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 dynamics based on SEIQR model. 2021

Takasar Hussain, and Muhammad Ozair, and Farhad Ali, and Sajid Ur Rehman, and Taghreed A Assiri, and Emad E Mahmoud
Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan.

It is of great curiosity to observe the effects of prevention methods and the magnitudes of the outbreak including epidemic prediction, at the onset of an epidemic. To deal with COVID-19 Pandemic, an SEIQR model has been designed. Analytical study of the model consists of the calculation of the basic reproduction number and the constant level of disease absent and disease present equilibrium. The model also explores number of cases and the predicted outcomes are in line with the cases registered. By parameters calibration, new cases in Pakistan are also predicted. The number of patients at the current level and the permanent level of COVID-19 cases are also calculated analytically and through simulations. The future situation has also been discussed, which could happen if precautionary restrictions are adopted.

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