Use of spreadsheet software for short-range forecasting of pharmacy management data. 1988

M H Stolar, and W B Pickett
Pharmacy Practice Research, International Health Information Applications, Inc., Washington, DC 20037.

The use of a personal-computer spreadsheet program (Lotus 1-2-3) for forecasting pharmacy management data is described. Exponential smoothing is used in the forecasting model; historical data are used to predict subsequent values. Future performance is assumed to be more closely related to recent performance than to older performance data, so the model gives greater weight to more recent data. The smoothing weight controls the magnitude of error correction; a mean squared error table in the spreadsheet is used to determine the weighting. Two versions of the forecasting model are described. Version A, for a service or product for which data are expected to remain fairly stable, is used to predict values for the next time period. Version B, for data in which a substantial upward or downward trend exists, can be used to predict values for several time periods in the future. Version B differs from version A in that the forecast in version B is an estimate of the overall average of the data (weighted toward the most recent data) plus the estimated change per time period (weighted toward the most recent changes). Data from a university hospital for 1986-87 are used to illustrate the spreadsheet's tabular and graphic output; version A is used to predict the number of outpatient prescriptions for the next month, and data for the hospital's semiannual expenditures on i.v. solutions and sets are used to illustrate version B's forecast. Pharmacy managers can use these spreadsheet forecasts to quantify drug-use and personnel information for presentation to hospital administration.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008432 Mathematical Computing Computer-assisted interpretation and analysis of various mathematical functions related to a particular problem. Statistical Computing,Computing, Statistical,Mathematic Computing,Statistical Programs, Computer Based,Computing, Mathematic,Computing, Mathematical,Computings, Mathematic,Computings, Mathematical,Computings, Statistical,Mathematic Computings,Mathematical Computings,Statistical Computings
D010607 Pharmacy Service, Hospital Hospital department responsible for the receiving, storing, and distribution of pharmaceutical supplies. Clinical Pharmacy Service,Hospital Pharmacy Service,Pharmacy Service, Clinical,Hospital Pharmaceutic Service,Hospital Pharmaceutical Service,Hospital Pharmacy Services,Pharmaceutic Service, Hospital,Pharmaceutical Service, Hospital,Service, Clinical Pharmacy,Service, Hospital Pharmaceutic,Service, Hospital Pharmaceutical,Service, Hospital Pharmacy,Clinical Pharmacy Services,Hospital Pharmaceutic Services,Hospital Pharmaceutical Services,Pharmaceutic Services, Hospital,Pharmaceutical Services, Hospital,Pharmacy Services, Clinical,Pharmacy Services, Hospital,Services, Clinical Pharmacy,Services, Hospital Pharmaceutic,Services, Hospital Pharmaceutical,Services, Hospital Pharmacy
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D012984 Software Sequential operating programs and data which instruct the functioning of a digital computer. Computer Programs,Computer Software,Open Source Software,Software Engineering,Software Tools,Computer Applications Software,Computer Programs and Programming,Computer Software Applications,Application, Computer Software,Applications Software, Computer,Applications Softwares, Computer,Applications, Computer Software,Computer Applications Softwares,Computer Program,Computer Software Application,Engineering, Software,Open Source Softwares,Program, Computer,Programs, Computer,Software Application, Computer,Software Applications, Computer,Software Tool,Software, Computer,Software, Computer Applications,Software, Open Source,Softwares, Computer Applications,Softwares, Open Source,Source Software, Open,Source Softwares, Open,Tool, Software,Tools, Software

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