Identifying optimal COVID-19 testing strategies for schools and businesses: Balancing testing frequency, individual test technology, and cost. 2021

Gregory D Lyng, and Natalie E Sheils, and Caleb J Kennedy, and Daniel O Griffin, and Ethan M Berke
OptumLabs, UnitedHealth Group, Minnetonka, MN, United States of America.

COVID-19 test sensitivity and specificity have been widely examined and discussed, yet optimal use of these tests will depend on the goals of testing, the population or setting, and the anticipated underlying disease prevalence. We model various combinations of key variables to identify and compare a range of effective and practical surveillance strategies for schools and businesses. We coupled a simulated data set incorporating actual community prevalence and test performance characteristics to a susceptible, infectious, removed (SIR) compartmental model, modeling the impact of base and tunable variables including test sensitivity, testing frequency, results lag, sample pooling, disease prevalence, externally-acquired infections, symptom checking, and test cost on outcomes including case reduction and false positives. Increasing testing frequency was associated with a non-linear positive effect on cases averted over 100 days. While precise reductions in cumulative number of infections depended on community disease prevalence, testing every 3 days versus every 14 days (even with a lower sensitivity test) reduces the disease burden substantially. Pooling provided cost savings and made a high-frequency approach practical; one high-performing strategy, testing every 3 days, yielded per person per day costs as low as $1.32. A range of practically viable testing strategies emerged for schools and businesses. Key characteristics of these strategies include high frequency testing with a moderate or high sensitivity test and minimal results delay. Sample pooling allowed for operational efficiency and cost savings with minimal loss of model performance.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008403 Mass Screening Organized periodic procedures performed on large groups of people for the purpose of detecting disease. Screening,Mass Screenings,Screening, Mass,Screenings,Screenings, Mass
D003362 Cost-Benefit Analysis A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. In contrast a cost effectiveness in general compares cost with qualitative outcomes. Cost and Benefit,Cost-Benefit Data,Benefits and Costs,Cost Benefit,Cost Benefit Analysis,Cost-Utility Analysis,Costs and Benefits,Economic Evaluation,Marginal Analysis,Analyses, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Utility,Analysis, Marginal,Benefit and Cost,Cost Benefit Analyses,Cost Benefit Data,Cost Utility Analysis,Cost-Benefit Analyses,Cost-Utility Analyses,Data, Cost-Benefit,Economic Evaluations,Evaluation, Economic,Marginal Analyses
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D000086742 COVID-19 Testing Diagnosis of COVID-19 by assaying bodily fluids or tissues for the presence of COVID-19 antibodies, SARS-COV-2 antigens or the VIRAL RNA of SARS-COV-2. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease Testing,2019 Novel Coronavirus Testing,2019-nCoV Disease Testing,2019-nCoV Infection Testing,2019-nCoV Testing,COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing,COVID-19 Virus Testing,COVID19 Testing,COVID19 Virus Testing,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Testing,Coronavirus Disease-19 Testing,SARS Coronavirus 2 Testing,SARS-CoV-2 Testing,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing,2019 nCoV Disease Testing,2019 nCoV Infection Testing,2019 nCoV Testing,2019-nCoV Disease Testings,2019-nCoV Infection Testings,2019-nCoV Testings,COVID 19 Diagnostic Testing,COVID 19 Testing,COVID 19 Virus Testing,COVID-19 Diagnostic Testings,COVID-19 Testings,COVID-19 Virus Testings,COVID19 Testings,COVID19 Virus Testings,Coronavirus Disease 19 Testing,Coronavirus Disease-19 Testings,Diagnostic Testing, COVID-19,Disease Testing, 2019-nCoV,Infection Testing, 2019-nCoV,SARS CoV 2 Testing,SARS-CoV-2 Testings,Testing, 2019-nCoV,Testing, 2019-nCoV Disease,Testing, 2019-nCoV Infection,Testing, COVID-19,Testing, COVID-19 Virus,Testing, COVID19,Testing, COVID19 Virus,Testing, Coronavirus Disease-19,Testing, SARS-CoV-2,Virus Testing, COVID-19,Virus Testing, COVID19
D012367 RNA, Viral Ribonucleic acid that makes up the genetic material of viruses. Viral RNA
D012574 Schools Educational institutions. Primary Schools,Schools, Secondary,Secondary Schools,Primary School,School,School, Primary,School, Secondary,Schools, Primary,Secondary School
D012680 Sensitivity and Specificity Binary classification measures to assess test results. Sensitivity or recall rate is the proportion of true positives. Specificity is the probability of correctly determining the absence of a condition. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed) Specificity,Sensitivity,Specificity and Sensitivity
D015995 Prevalence The total number of cases of a given disease in a specified population at a designated time. It is differentiated from INCIDENCE, which refers to the number of new cases in the population at a given time. Period Prevalence,Point Prevalence,Period Prevalences,Point Prevalences,Prevalence, Period,Prevalence, Point,Prevalences

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