Modelling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories. 2021

Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
Data Science Institute, Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, UHasselt, Hasselt, Belgium; Global Health Institute, Family Medicine and Population Health, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium. Electronic address: steven.abrams@uhasselt.be.

Following the onset of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world, a large fraction of the global population is or has been under strict measures of physical distancing and quarantine, with many countries being in partial or full lockdown. These measures are imposed in order to reduce the spread of the disease and to lift the pressure on healthcare systems. Estimating the impact of such interventions as well as monitoring the gradual relaxing of these stringent measures is quintessential to understand how resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic can be controlled for in the future. In this paper we use a stochastic age-structured discrete time compartmental model to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Belgium. Our model explicitly accounts for age-structure by integrating data on social contacts to (i) assess the impact of the lockdown as implemented on March 13, 2020 on the number of new hospitalizations in Belgium; (ii) conduct a scenario analysis estimating the impact of possible exit strategies on potential future COVID-19 waves. More specifically, the aforementioned model is fitted to hospital admission data, data on the daily number of COVID-19 deaths and serial serological survey data informing the (sero)prevalence of the disease in the population while relying on a Bayesian MCMC approach. Our age-structured stochastic model describes the observed outbreak data well, both in terms of hospitalizations as well as COVID-19 related deaths in the Belgian population. Despite an extensive exploration of various projections for the future course of the epidemic, based on the impact of adherence to measures of physical distancing and a potential increase in contacts as a result of the relaxation of the stringent lockdown measures, a lot of uncertainty remains about the evolution of the epidemic in the next months.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003140 Communicable Disease Control Programs of surveillance designed to prevent the transmission of disease by any means from person to person or from animal to man. Flatten the Curve of Epidemic,Flattening the Curve, Communicable Disease Control,Parasite Control,Control, Communicable Disease,Control, Parasite
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006760 Hospitalization The confinement of a patient in a hospital. Hospitalizations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D001530 Belgium A country in Western Europe, bordering the North Sea, between France and the Netherlands. The capital is Brussels.
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D016036 Seroepidemiologic Studies EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES based on the detection through serological testing of characteristic change in the serum level of specific ANTIBODIES. Latent subclinical infections and carrier states can thus be detected in addition to clinically overt cases. Seroprevalence,Seroepidemiologic Study,Seroepidemiological Study,Studies, Seroepidemiologic,Study, Seroepidemiologic,Seroepidemiological Studies,Seroprevalences,Studies, Seroepidemiological,Study, Seroepidemiological

Related Publications

Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
January 2020, Theoretical biology forum,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
July 2023, Biomedical signal processing and control,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
October 2022, Scientific reports,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
March 2023, Computer methods in biomechanics and biomedical engineering,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
March 2021, Results in physics,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
November 2021, Results in physics,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
January 2021, Advances in difference equations,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
October 2020, The Lancet. Digital health,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
October 2020, Chaos, solitons, and fractals,
Steven Abrams, and James Wambua, and Eva Santermans, and Lander Willem, and Elise Kuylen, and Pietro Coletti, and Pieter Libin, and Christel Faes, and Oana Petrof, and Sereina A Herzog, and Philippe Beutels, and Niel Hens
January 2020, Advances in difference equations,
Copied contents to your clipboard!