BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to clarify the incidence rate and the risk factors for the progression of the hallux valgus deformity. METHODS Patients who had weight-bearing radiographs of the foot taken twice or more, with a ≥2-year interval, were retrospectively analyzed. Progression of the deformity was defined as an increase in the hallux valgus angle of ≥5° during the follow-up. The association of hallux valgus progression with patient characteristics and radiographic measurements at baseline was determined using univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS Totally, 268 patients (217 women and 51 men; median age, 64 years) were analyzed. An increase in the hallux valgus angle of ≥5° occurred in 44 (17%) patients in a median follow-up of 49 months. Large hallux valgus angle (odds ratio, 1.07) on the dorsoplantar radiograph at baseline were independent risk factors for the progression of the deformity. CONCLUSIONS Progression of the hallux valgus deformity occurred in one of six patients. Furthermore, large hallux valgus angle was the risk factor for subsequent deformity progression. Patients with large hallux valgus angle should be informed about the possible progression of the deformity.