Comparison of three Glasgow multifactor prognostic scoring systems in acute pancreatitis. 1988

T Leese, and D Shaw
Department of Surgery, University of Leicester, UK.

Modifications have been proposed in an attempt to improve the clinical value of the original nine-factor Glasgow prognostic scoring system for acute pancreatitis. These include the omission of age or serum transaminase, reducing the factors to eight. Debate exists as to which system should be employed. Assessment of the individual factors in 198 attacks of acute pancreatitis treated conventionally revealed that only serum transaminase did not differ significantly between mild and severe outcome groups. Multivariate analysis demonstrated four factors (Pa,O2, white cell count, lactic dehydrogenase, and urea) with independent significance in predicting severity, while serum glucose, albumin and transaminase were least useful. Findings were similar when considering only patients with gallstone aetiology. The reduction of the prognostic factors to eight by the omission of either age or transaminase improved the predictive value of the scoring system, both when considering all attacks and those of gallstone aetiology alone. We suggest that serum transaminase should be omitted because: it shows no significant difference between mild and severe outcome groups, while age has prognostic significance; the system has greater sensitivity than if age is omitted; and the number of factors requiring emergency laboratory measurement for immediate prognostication is reduced by one.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D010195 Pancreatitis INFLAMMATION of the PANCREAS. Pancreatitis is classified as acute unless there are computed tomographic or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographic findings of CHRONIC PANCREATITIS (International Symposium on Acute Pancreatitis, Atlanta, 1992). The two most common forms of acute pancreatitis are ALCOHOLIC PANCREATITIS and gallstone pancreatitis. Acute Edematous Pancreatitis,Acute Pancreatitis,Pancreatic Parenchyma with Edema,Pancreatic Parenchymal Edema,Pancreatitis, Acute,Pancreatitis, Acute Edematous,Peripancreatic Fat Necrosis,Acute Edematous Pancreatitides,Acute Pancreatitides,Edema, Pancreatic Parenchymal,Edematous Pancreatitides, Acute,Edematous Pancreatitis, Acute,Fat Necrosis, Peripancreatic,Necrosis, Peripancreatic Fat,Pancreatic Parenchymal Edemas,Pancreatitides, Acute,Pancreatitides, Acute Edematous,Parenchymal Edema, Pancreatic,Peripancreatic Fat Necroses
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D002769 Cholelithiasis Presence or formation of GALLSTONES in the BILIARY TRACT, usually in the gallbladder (CHOLECYSTOLITHIASIS) or the common bile duct (CHOLEDOCHOLITHIASIS). Gallstone Disease,Cholelithiases,Gallstone Diseases
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000208 Acute Disease Disease having a short and relatively severe course. Acute Diseases,Disease, Acute,Diseases, Acute
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths

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