Applied comparison of large-scale propensity score matching and cardinality matching for causal inference in observational research. 2021

Stephen P Fortin, and Stephen S Johnston, and Martijn J Schuemie
Janssen R&D, LLC, Raritan, NJ, USA. stephenfortin12@gmail.com.

Cardinality matching (CM), a novel matching technique, finds the largest matched sample meeting prespecified balance criteria thereby overcoming limitations of propensity score matching (PSM) associated with limited covariate overlap, which are especially pronounced in studies with small sample sizes. The current study proposes a framework for large-scale CM (LS-CM); and compares large-scale PSM (LS-PSM) and LS-CM in terms of post-match sample size, covariate balance and residual confounding at progressively smaller sample sizes. Evaluation of LS-PSM and LS-CM within a comparative cohort study of new users of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and thiazide or thiazide-like diuretic monotherapy identified from a U.S. insurance claims database. Candidate covariates included patient demographics, and all observed prior conditions, drug exposures and procedures. Propensity scores were calculated using LASSO regression, and candidate covariates with non-zero beta coefficients in the propensity model were defined as matching covariates for use in LS-CM. One-to-one matching was performed using progressively tighter parameter settings. Covariate balance was assessed using standardized mean differences. Hazard ratios for negative control outcomes perceived as unassociated with treatment (i.e., true hazard ratio of 1) were estimated using unconditional Cox models. Residual confounding was assessed using the expected systematic error of the empirical null distribution of negative control effect estimates compared to the ground truth. To simulate diverse research conditions, analyses were repeated within 10 %, 1 and 0.5 % subsample groups with increasingly limited covariate overlap. A total of 172,117 patients (ACEI: 129,078; thiazide: 43,039) met the study criteria. As compared to LS-PSM, LS-CM was associated with increased sample retention. Although LS-PSM achieved balance across all matching covariates within the full study population, substantial matching covariate imbalance was observed within the 1 and 0.5 % subsample groups. Meanwhile, LS-CM achieved matching covariate balance across all analyses. LS-PSM was associated with better candidate covariate balance within the full study population. Otherwise, both matching techniques achieved comparable candidate covariate balance and expected systematic error. LS-CM found the largest matched sample meeting prespecified balance criteria while achieving comparable candidate covariate balance and residual confounding. We recommend LS-CM as an alternative to LS-PSM in studies with small sample sizes or limited covariate overlap.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D015331 Cohort Studies Studies in which subsets of a defined population are identified. These groups may or may not be exposed to factors hypothesized to influence the probability of the occurrence of a particular disease or other outcome. Cohorts are defined populations which, as a whole, are followed in an attempt to determine distinguishing subgroup characteristics. Birth Cohort Studies,Birth Cohort Study,Closed Cohort Studies,Cohort Analysis,Concurrent Studies,Historical Cohort Studies,Incidence Studies,Analysis, Cohort,Cohort Studies, Closed,Cohort Studies, Historical,Studies, Closed Cohort,Studies, Concurrent,Studies, Historical Cohort,Analyses, Cohort,Closed Cohort Study,Cohort Analyses,Cohort Studies, Birth,Cohort Study,Cohort Study, Birth,Cohort Study, Closed,Cohort Study, Historical,Concurrent Study,Historical Cohort Study,Incidence Study,Studies, Birth Cohort,Studies, Cohort,Studies, Incidence,Study, Birth Cohort,Study, Closed Cohort,Study, Cohort,Study, Concurrent,Study, Historical Cohort,Study, Incidence
D015984 Causality The relating of causes to the effects they produce. Causes are termed necessary when they must always precede an effect and sufficient when they initiate or produce an effect. Any of several factors may be associated with the potential disease causation or outcome, including predisposing factors, enabling factors, precipitating factors, reinforcing factors, and risk factors. Causation,Enabling Factors,Multifactorial Causality,Multiple Causation,Predisposing Factors,Reinforcing Factors,Causalities,Causalities, Multifactorial,Causality, Multifactorial,Causation, Multiple,Causations,Causations, Multiple,Enabling Factor,Factor, Enabling,Factor, Predisposing,Factor, Reinforcing,Factors, Enabling,Factors, Predisposing,Factors, Reinforcing,Multifactorial Causalities,Multiple Causations,Predisposing Factor,Reinforcing Factor
D016208 Databases, Factual Extensive collections, reputedly complete, of facts and data garnered from material of a specialized subject area and made available for analysis and application. The collection can be automated by various contemporary methods for retrieval. The concept should be differentiated from DATABASES, BIBLIOGRAPHIC which is restricted to collections of bibliographic references. Databanks, Factual,Data Banks, Factual,Data Bases, Factual,Data Bank, Factual,Data Base, Factual,Databank, Factual,Database, Factual,Factual Data Bank,Factual Data Banks,Factual Data Base,Factual Data Bases,Factual Databank,Factual Databanks,Factual Database,Factual Databases
D057216 Propensity Score Conditional probability of exposure to a treatment given observed covariates. Propensity Scores,Score, Propensity,Scores, Propensity

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