Development and validation of a prognostic model for patients with hepatorenal syndrome: A retrospective cohort study. 2021

Xin-Yu Sheng, and Fei-Yan Lin, and Jian Wu, and Hong-Cui Cao
State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, Zhejiang Province, China.

BACKGROUND Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a severe complication of cirrhosis with high mortality, which necessitates accurate clinical decision. However, studies on prognostic factors and scoring systems to predict overall survival of HRS are not enough. Meanwhile, a multicenter cohort study with a long span of time could be more convincing. OBJECTIVE To develop a novel and effective prognostic model for patients with HRS and clarify new prognostic factors. METHODS We retrospectively enrolled 1667 patients from four hospitals, and 371 eligible patients were finally analyzed to develop and validate a novel prognostic model for patients with HRS. Characteristics were compared between survivors and non-survivors, and potential prognostic factors were selected according to the impact on 28-d mortality. Accuracy in predicting 28-d mortality was compared between the novel and other scoring systems, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), and Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (COSSH-ACLF). RESULTS Five prognostic factors, comprised of gender, international normalized ratio, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, neutrophil percentage, and stage, were integrated into a new score, GIMNS; stage is a binary variable defined by the number of failed organs. GIMNS was positively correlated with MELD, CLIF-SOFA, and COSSH-ACLF. Additionally, it had better accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.830] than MELD (AUROC: 0.759), CLIF-SOFA (AUROC: 0.767), and COSSH-ACLF (AUROC: 0.759) in the derivation cohort (P < 0.05). It performed better than MELD and CLIF-SOFA in the validation cohort (P < 0.050) and had a higher AUROC than COSSH-ACLF (P = 0.122). CONCLUSIONS We have developed a new scoring system, GIMNS, to predict 28-d mortality of HRS patients. Mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and stage were first proposed and found to be related to the mortality of HRS. Additionally, the GIMNS score showed better accuracy than MELD and CLIF-SOFA, and the AUROC was higher than that of COSSH-ACLF.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D006530 Hepatorenal Syndrome Functional KIDNEY FAILURE in patients with liver disease, usually LIVER CIRRHOSIS or portal hypertension (HYPERTENSION, PORTAL), and in the absence of intrinsic renal disease or kidney abnormality. It is characterized by intense renal vasculature constriction, reduced renal blood flow, OLIGURIA, and sodium retention. Syndrome, Hepatorenal
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D012720 Severity of Illness Index Levels within a diagnostic group which are established by various measurement criteria applied to the seriousness of a patient's disorder. Illness Index Severities,Illness Index Severity
D015331 Cohort Studies Studies in which subsets of a defined population are identified. These groups may or may not be exposed to factors hypothesized to influence the probability of the occurrence of a particular disease or other outcome. Cohorts are defined populations which, as a whole, are followed in an attempt to determine distinguishing subgroup characteristics. Birth Cohort Studies,Birth Cohort Study,Closed Cohort Studies,Cohort Analysis,Concurrent Studies,Historical Cohort Studies,Incidence Studies,Analysis, Cohort,Cohort Studies, Closed,Cohort Studies, Historical,Studies, Closed Cohort,Studies, Concurrent,Studies, Historical Cohort,Analyses, Cohort,Closed Cohort Study,Cohort Analyses,Cohort Studies, Birth,Cohort Study,Cohort Study, Birth,Cohort Study, Closed,Cohort Study, Historical,Concurrent Study,Historical Cohort Study,Incidence Study,Studies, Birth Cohort,Studies, Cohort,Studies, Incidence,Study, Birth Cohort,Study, Closed Cohort,Study, Cohort,Study, Concurrent,Study, Historical Cohort,Study, Incidence
D058625 End Stage Liver Disease Final stage of a liver disease when the liver failure is irreversible and LIVER TRANSPLANTATION is needed. Chronic Liver Failure,Liver Failure, Chronic,Chronic Liver Failures,Failure, Chronic Liver,Failures, Chronic Liver,Liver Failures, Chronic

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