Spatial spread of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy using multiscale kinetic transport equations with uncertainty. 2021

Giulia Bertaglia, and Walter Boscheri, and Giacomo Dimarco, and Lorenzo Pareschi
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, Via Machiavelli 30, Ferrara 44121, Italy.

In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus transmission is ruled by a SEIAR type compartmental model, within our approach the population is given by a sum of commuters moving on a extra-urban scale and non commuters interacting only on the smaller urban scale. A transport dynamics of the commuter population at large spatial scales, based on kinetic equations, is coupled with a diffusion model for non commuters at the urban scale. Thanks to a suitable scaling limit, the kinetic transport model used to describe the dynamics of commuters, within a given urban area coincides with the diffusion equations that characterize the movement of non-commuting individuals. Because of the high uncertainty in the data reported in the early phase of the epidemic, the presence of random inputs in both the initial data and the epidemic parameters is included in the model. A robust numerical method is designed to deal with the presence of multiple scales and the uncertainty quantification process. In our simulations, we considered a realistic geographical domain, describing the Lombardy region, in which the size of the cities, the number of infected individuals, the average number of daily commuters moving from one city to another, and the epidemic aspects are taken into account through a calibration of the model parameters based on the actual available data. The results show that the model is able to describe correctly the main features of the spatial expansion of the first wave of COVID-19 in northern Italy.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D002947 Cities A large or important municipality of a country, usually a major metropolitan center. Municipalities,Towns
D004196 Disease Outbreaks Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS. Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D035501 Uncertainty The condition in which reasonable knowledge regarding risks, benefits, or the future is not available.

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