A branching process model of evolutionary rescue. 2021

Ricardo B R Azevedo, and Peter Olofsson
Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA.

Evolutionary rescue is the process whereby a declining population may start growing again, thus avoiding extinction, via an increase in the frequency of fitter genotypes. These genotypes may either already be present in the population in small numbers, or arise by mutation as the population declines. We present a simple two-type discrete-time branching process model and use it to obtain results such as the probability of rescue, the shape of the population growth curve of a rescued population, and the time until the first rescuing mutation occurs. Comparisons are made to existing results in the literature in cases where both the mutation rate and the selective advantage of the beneficial mutations are small.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008957 Models, Genetic Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of genetic processes or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Genetic Models,Genetic Model,Model, Genetic
D009154 Mutation Any detectable and heritable change in the genetic material that causes a change in the GENOTYPE and which is transmitted to daughter cells and to succeeding generations. Mutations
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D005075 Biological Evolution The process of cumulative change over successive generations through which organisms acquire their distinguishing morphological and physiological characteristics. Evolution, Biological
D005838 Genotype The genetic constitution of the individual, comprising the ALLELES present at each GENETIC LOCUS. Genogroup,Genogroups,Genotypes
D012641 Selection, Genetic Differential and non-random reproduction of different genotypes, operating to alter the gene frequencies within a population. Natural Selection,Genetic Selection,Selection, Natural
D059645 Mutation Rate The number of mutations that occur in a specific sequence, GENE, or GENOME over a specified period of time such as years, CELL DIVISIONS, or generations. Mutation Frequency,Frequencies, Mutation,Frequency, Mutation,Mutation Frequencies,Mutation Rates,Rate, Mutation,Rates, Mutation

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