The Prediction of Metastases of Lateral Cervical Lymph Node in Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma. 2021

Tian-Han Zhou, and Ling-Qian Zhao, and Yu Zhang, and Fan Wu, and Kai-Ning Lu, and Lin-Lin Mao, and Ke-Cheng Jiang, and Ding-Cun Luo
The Fourth School of Clinical Medicine, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, China.

Development and validation of a nomogram for the prediction of lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). We retrospectively reviewed the clinical features of patients with MTC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017 and in our Department of Surgical Oncology, Hangzhou First People's Hospital between 2009 and 2019. The log-rank test was used to compare the difference in the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves in recurrence and survival. The nomogram was developed to predict the risk of LLNM in MTC patients. The prediction efficiency of the predictive model was assessed by area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the clinic value of the predictive model. A total of 714 patients in the SEER database and 35 patients in our department were enrolled in our study. Patients with LLNM had worse recurrence rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS) compared with patients without LLNM. Five clinical characteristics including sex, tumor size, multifocality, extrathyroidal extension, and distant metastasis were identified to be associated with LLNM in MTC patients, which were used to develop a nomogram. Our prediction model had satisfied discrimination with a C-index of 0.825, supported by both training set and internal testing set with a C-index of 0.825, and 0.816, respectively. DCA was further made to evaluate the clinical utility of this nomogram for predicting LLNM. Male sex, tumor size >38mm, multifocality, extrathyroidal extension, and distant metastasis in MTC patients were significant risk factors for predicting LLNM.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008207 Lymphatic Metastasis Transfer of a neoplasm from its primary site to lymph nodes or to distant parts of the body by way of the lymphatic system. Lymph Node Metastasis,Lymph Node Metastases,Lymphatic Metastases,Metastasis, Lymph Node
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009364 Neoplasm Recurrence, Local The local recurrence of a neoplasm following treatment. It arises from microscopic cells of the original neoplasm that have escaped therapeutic intervention and later become clinically visible at the original site. Local Neoplasm Recurrence,Local Neoplasm Recurrences,Locoregional Neoplasm Recurrence,Neoplasm Recurrence, Locoregional,Neoplasm Recurrences, Local,Recurrence, Local Neoplasm,Recurrence, Locoregional Neoplasm,Recurrences, Local Neoplasm,Locoregional Neoplasm Recurrences,Neoplasm Recurrences, Locoregional,Recurrences, Locoregional Neoplasm
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly

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