Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Survival in Diabetic Patients With Acute Kidney Injury. 2021

Manqiu Mo, and Ling Pan, and Zichun Huang, and Yuzhen Liang, and Yunhua Liao, and Ning Xia
Geriatric Department of Endocrinology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.

We aimed to analyze the risk factors affecting all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) and to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the 90-day survival rate of patients. Clinical data of diabetic patients with AKI who were diagnosed at The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from April 30, 2011, to April 30, 2021, were collected. A total of 1,042 patients were randomly divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The primary study endpoint was all-cause death within 90 days of AKI diagnosis. Clinical parameters and demographic characteristics were analyzed using Cox regression to develop a prediction model for survival in diabetic patients with AKI, and a nomogram was then constructed. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plot were used to evaluate the prediction model. The development cohort enrolled 730 patients with a median follow-up time of 87 (40-98) days, and 86 patients (11.8%) died during follow-up. The 90-day survival rate was 88.2% (644/730), and the recovery rate for renal function in survivors was 32.9% (212/644). Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age (HR = 1.064, 95% CI = 1.043-1.085), lower pulse pressure (HR = 0.964, 95% CI = 0.951-0.977), stage 3 AKI (HR = 4.803, 95% CI = 1.678-13.750), lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (HR = 0.944, 95% CI = 0.930-0.960), and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (HR = 2.056, 95% CI = 1.287-3.286) were independent risk factors affecting the all-cause death of diabetic patients with AKI (all p < 0.01). The C-indices of the prediction cohort and the validation cohort were 0.880 (95% CI = 0.839-0.921) and 0.798 (95% CI = 0.720-0.876), respectively. The calibration plot of the model showed excellent consistency between the prediction probability and the actual probability. We developed a new prediction model that has been internally verified to have good discrimination, calibration, and clinical value for predicting the 90-day survival rate of diabetic patients with AKI.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D001794 Blood Pressure PRESSURE of the BLOOD on the ARTERIES and other BLOOD VESSELS. Systolic Pressure,Diastolic Pressure,Pulse Pressure,Pressure, Blood,Pressure, Diastolic,Pressure, Pulse,Pressure, Systolic,Pressures, Systolic
D003920 Diabetes Mellitus A heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by HYPERGLYCEMIA and GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE.
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000367 Age Factors Age as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or the effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from AGING, a physiological process, and TIME FACTORS which refers only to the passage of time. Age Reporting,Age Factor,Factor, Age,Factors, Age
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D015996 Survival Rate The proportion of survivors in a group, e.g., of patients, studied and followed over a period, or the proportion of persons in a specified group alive at the beginning of a time interval who survive to the end of the interval. It is often studied using life table methods. Cumulative Survival Rate,Mean Survival Time,Cumulative Survival Rates,Mean Survival Times,Rate, Cumulative Survival,Rate, Survival,Rates, Cumulative Survival,Rates, Survival,Survival Rate, Cumulative,Survival Rates,Survival Rates, Cumulative,Survival Time, Mean,Survival Times, Mean,Time, Mean Survival,Times, Mean Survival

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