Heart Rate Modeling and Prediction Using Autoregressive Models and Deep Learning. 2021

Alessio Staffini, and Thomas Svensson, and Ung-Il Chung, and Akiko Kishi Svensson
Precision Health, Department of Bioengineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan.

Physiological time series are affected by many factors, making them highly nonlinear and nonstationary. As a consequence, heart rate time series are often considered difficult to predict and handle. However, heart rate behavior can indicate underlying cardiovascular and respiratory diseases as well as mood disorders. Given the importance of accurate modeling and reliable predictions of heart rate fluctuations for the prevention and control of certain diseases, it is paramount to identify models with the best performance in such tasks. The objectives of this study were to compare the results of three different forecasting models (Autoregressive Model, Long Short-Term Memory Network, and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network) trained and tested on heart rate beats per minute data obtained from twelve heterogeneous participants and to identify the architecture with the best performance in terms of modeling and forecasting heart rate behavior. Heart rate beats per minute data were collected using a wearable device over a period of 10 days from twelve different participants who were heterogeneous in age, sex, medical history, and lifestyle behaviors. The goodness of the results produced by the models was measured using both the mean absolute error and the root mean square error as error metrics. Despite the three models showing similar performance, the Autoregressive Model gave the best results in all settings examined. For example, considering one of the participants, the Autoregressive Model gave a mean absolute error of 2.069 (compared to 2.173 of the Long Short-Term Memory Network and 2.138 of the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network), achieving an improvement of 5.027% and 3.335%, respectively. Similar results can be observed for the other participants. The findings of the study suggest that regardless of an individual's age, sex, and lifestyle behaviors, their heart rate largely depends on the pattern observed in the previous few minutes, suggesting that heart rate can be reasonably regarded as an autoregressive process. The findings also suggest that minute-by-minute heart rate prediction can be accurately performed using a linear model, at least in individuals without pathologies that cause heartbeat irregularities. The findings also suggest many possible applications for the Autoregressive Model, in principle in any context where minute-by-minute heart rate prediction is required (arrhythmia detection and analysis of the response to training, among others).

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006339 Heart Rate The number of times the HEART VENTRICLES contract per unit of time, usually per minute. Cardiac Rate,Chronotropism, Cardiac,Heart Rate Control,Heartbeat,Pulse Rate,Cardiac Chronotropy,Cardiac Chronotropism,Cardiac Rates,Chronotropy, Cardiac,Control, Heart Rate,Heart Rates,Heartbeats,Pulse Rates,Rate Control, Heart,Rate, Cardiac,Rate, Heart,Rate, Pulse
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000077321 Deep Learning Supervised or unsupervised machine learning methods that use multiple layers of data representations generated by nonlinear transformations, instead of individual task-specific ALGORITHMS, to build and train neural network models. Hierarchical Learning,Learning, Deep,Learning, Hierarchical
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D016571 Neural Networks, Computer A computer architecture, implementable in either hardware or software, modeled after biological neural networks. Like the biological system in which the processing capability is a result of the interconnection strengths between arrays of nonlinear processing nodes, computerized neural networks, often called perceptrons or multilayer connectionist models, consist of neuron-like units. A homogeneous group of units makes up a layer. These networks are good at pattern recognition. They are adaptive, performing tasks by example, and thus are better for decision-making than are linear learning machines or cluster analysis. They do not require explicit programming. Computational Neural Networks,Connectionist Models,Models, Neural Network,Neural Network Models,Neural Networks (Computer),Perceptrons,Computational Neural Network,Computer Neural Network,Computer Neural Networks,Connectionist Model,Model, Connectionist,Model, Neural Network,Models, Connectionist,Network Model, Neural,Network Models, Neural,Network, Computational Neural,Network, Computer Neural,Network, Neural (Computer),Networks, Computational Neural,Networks, Computer Neural,Networks, Neural (Computer),Neural Network (Computer),Neural Network Model,Neural Network, Computational,Neural Network, Computer,Neural Networks, Computational,Perceptron

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