A machine learning approach to predict e-cigarette use and dependence among Ontario youth. 2022

Jiamin Shi, and Rui Fu, and Hayley Hamilton, and Michael Chaiton
Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND We developed separate random forest algorithms to predict e-cigarette (vaping) ever use and daily use among Ontario youth, and subsequently examined predictor importance and statistical interaction. METHODS This cross-sectional study used a representative sample of Ontario elementary and high school students in 2019 (N = 6471). Vaping frequency over the last 12 months was used to define ever-vaping and daily vaping. We considered a large set of individual characteristics as potential correlates for ever-vaping (176 variables) and daily vaping (179 variables). Using cross-validation, we developed random forest algorithms and evaluated model performance based on the C-index, a measure to assess the discriminatory ability of a model, for both outcomes. Further, the top 10 correlates were identified by relative importance score calculation and their interaction with sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS There were 2064 (31.9%) ever-vapers, and 490 (7.6%) of the respondents were daily users. The random forest algorithms for both outcomes achieved high performance, with C-index over 0.90. The top 10 correlates of daily vaping included use of caffeine, cannabis and tobacco, source and type of e-cigarette and absence in last 20 school days. Those of ever-vaping included school size, use of alcohol, cannabis and tobacco; 9 of the top 10 ever-vaping correlates demonstrated interactions with ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning is a promising methodology for identifying the risks of ever-vaping and daily vaping. Furthermore, it enables the identification of important correlates and the assessment of complex intersections, which may inform future longitudinal studies to customize public health policies for targeted population subgroups.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009864 Ontario A province of Canada lying between the provinces of Manitoba and Quebec. Its capital is Toronto. It takes its name from Lake Ontario which is said to represent the Iroquois oniatariio, beautiful lake. (From Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988, p892 & Room, Brewer's Dictionary of Names, 1992, p391)
D003430 Cross-Sectional Studies Studies in which the presence or absence of disease or other health-related variables are determined in each member of the study population or in a representative sample at one particular time. This contrasts with LONGITUDINAL STUDIES which are followed over a period of time. Disease Frequency Surveys,Prevalence Studies,Analysis, Cross-Sectional,Cross Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Survey,Surveys, Disease Frequency,Analyses, Cross Sectional,Analyses, Cross-Sectional,Analysis, Cross Sectional,Cross Sectional Analyses,Cross Sectional Studies,Cross Sectional Survey,Cross-Sectional Analyses,Cross-Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Study,Cross-Sectional Surveys,Disease Frequency Survey,Prevalence Study,Studies, Cross-Sectional,Studies, Prevalence,Study, Cross-Sectional,Study, Prevalence,Survey, Cross-Sectional,Survey, Disease Frequency,Surveys, Cross-Sectional
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000072137 Vaping Inhaling of vapors produced by ELECTRONIC NICOTINE DELIVERY SYSTEMS such as E-CIGARETTES. ECig Use,Ecigarette Use,Nicotine Vaping,THC Vaping,E-Cig Use,E-Cigarette Use,Electronic Cigarette Use,Vape,Cigarette Use, Electronic,E Cig Use,E Cigarette Use,E-Cig Uses,E-Cigarette Uses,ECig Uses,Ecigarette Uses,Electronic Cigarette Uses,Nicotine Vapings,THC Vapings,Use, E-Cig,Use, E-Cigarette,Use, ECig,Use, Ecigarette,Use, Electronic Cigarette,Uses, Ecigarette,Vapes,Vaping, Nicotine,Vaping, THC,Vapings, Nicotine,Vapings, THC
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths
D066300 Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems Devices or objects designed to provide NICOTINE in the form of an inhaled aerosol. E-Cig,E-Cigarette,Electronic Cigarette,Electronic Cigarettes,Electronic Nicotine Delivery System,E-Cigarettes,E-Cigs,Cigarette, Electronic,Cigarettes, Electronic,E Cig,E Cigarette,E Cigarettes,E Cigs

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