Mortality Associated With Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the US, 1999-2018. 2022

Chelsea L Hansen, and Sandra S Chaves, and Clarisse Demont, and Cécile Viboud
Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.

OBJECTIVE Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) mortality estimates have not been updated since 2009, and no study has assessed changes in influenza mortality after the 2009 pandemic. Updated burden estimates are needed to characterize long-term changes in the epidemiology of these viruses. OBJECTIVE To evaluate excess mortality from RSV and influenza in the US from 1999 to 2018. METHODS This cross-sectional study used data from 50.3 million US death certificates from 1999 to 2018 to create age-specific linear regression models and assess weekly mortality fluctuations above a seasonal baseline associated with RSV and influenza. Statistical analysis was performed for 1043 weeks from January 3, 1999, to December 29, 2018. METHODS Excess mortality associated with RSV and influenza estimated from the difference between observed and expected underlying respiratory mortality each season. RESULTS There were 50.3 million death certificates (50.1% women and 49.9% men; mean [SD] age at death, 72.7 [18.6] years) included in this analysis, 1.0% for children younger than 1 year and 73.4% for adults aged 65 years or older. A mean of 6549 (95% CI, 6140-6958) underlying respiratory deaths were associated with RSV annually, including 96 (95% CI, 92-99) deaths among children younger than 1 year. For influenza, there were 10 171 (95% CI, 9652-10 691) underlying respiratory deaths per year, with 23 deaths (95% CI, 19-27) among children younger than 1 year. The highest mean mortality rate per 100 000 population for both viruses was among adults aged 65 years or older at 14.7 (95% CI, 13.8-15.5) for RSV and 20.5 (95% CI, 19.4-21.5) for influenza. A lower proportion of influenza deaths occurred among those aged 65 years or older compared with earlier estimates (75.1% [95% CI, 67.4%-82.8%]). Influenza mortality was highest among those aged 65 years or older in seasons when A/H3N2 predominated (18 739 [95% CI, 16 616-21 336] deaths in 2017-2018) and among those aged 5 to 49 years when A/H1N1pdm2009 predominated (1683 [95% CI, 1583-1787] deaths in 2013-2014). Results were sensitive to the choice of mortality outcome and method, with the broadest outcome associated with annual means of 23 352 (95% CI, 21 814-24 891) excess deaths for RSV and 27 171 (95% CI, 25 142-29 199) for influenza. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that RSV poses a greater risk than influenza to infants, while both are associated with substantial mortality among elderly individuals. Influenza has large interannual variability, affecting different age groups depending on the circulating virus. The emergence of the influenza A/H1N1pdm2009 pandemic virus in 2009 shifted mortality toward middle-aged adults, a trend still observed to date. This study's estimates provide a benchmark to evaluate the mortality benefits associated with interventions against respiratory viruses, including new or improved immunization strategies.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007223 Infant A child between 1 and 23 months of age. Infants
D007251 Influenza, Human An acute viral infection in humans involving the respiratory tract. It is marked by inflammation of the NASAL MUCOSA; the PHARYNX; and conjunctiva, and by headache and severe, often generalized, myalgia. Grippe,Human Flu,Human Influenza,Influenza in Humans,Influenza,Flu, Human,Human Influenzas,Influenza in Human,Influenzas,Influenzas, Human
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009980 Influenza A virus The type species of the genus ALPHAINFLUENZAVIRUS that causes influenza and other diseases in humans and animals. Antigenic variation occurs frequently between strains, allowing classification into subtypes and variants. Transmission is usually by aerosol (human and most non-aquatic hosts) or waterborne (ducks). Infected birds shed the virus in their saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Alphainfluenzavirus influenzae,Avian Orthomyxovirus Type A,FLUAV,Fowl Plague Virus,Human Influenza A Virus,Influenza Virus Type A,Influenza Viruses Type A,Myxovirus influenzae-A hominis,Myxovirus influenzae-A suis,Myxovirus pestis galli,Orthomyxovirus Type A,Orthomyxovirus Type A, Avian,Orthomyxovirus Type A, Human,Orthomyxovirus Type A, Porcine,Pestis galli Myxovirus,Fowl Plague Viruses,Influenza A viruses,Myxovirus influenzae A hominis,Myxovirus influenzae A suis,Myxovirus, Pestis galli,Myxoviruses, Pestis galli,Pestis galli Myxoviruses,Plague Virus, Fowl,Virus, Fowl Plague
D012136 Respiratory Syncytial Viruses A group of viruses in the PNEUMOVIRUS genus causing respiratory infections in various mammals. Humans and cattle are most affected but infections in goats and sheep have also been reported. Chimpanzee Coryza Agent,Orthopneumovirus,RSV Respiratory Syncytial Virus,Chimpanzee Coryza Agents,Coryza Agent, Chimpanzee,Orthopneumoviruses,Respiratory Syncytial Virus,Syncytial Virus, Respiratory,Virus, Respiratory Syncytial
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D003430 Cross-Sectional Studies Studies in which the presence or absence of disease or other health-related variables are determined in each member of the study population or in a representative sample at one particular time. This contrasts with LONGITUDINAL STUDIES which are followed over a period of time. Disease Frequency Surveys,Prevalence Studies,Analysis, Cross-Sectional,Cross Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Survey,Surveys, Disease Frequency,Analyses, Cross Sectional,Analyses, Cross-Sectional,Analysis, Cross Sectional,Cross Sectional Analyses,Cross Sectional Studies,Cross Sectional Survey,Cross-Sectional Analyses,Cross-Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Study,Cross-Sectional Surveys,Disease Frequency Survey,Prevalence Study,Studies, Cross-Sectional,Studies, Prevalence,Study, Cross-Sectional,Study, Prevalence,Survey, Cross-Sectional,Survey, Disease Frequency,Surveys, Cross-Sectional
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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