Microsimulation Model Calibration with Approximate Bayesian Computation in R: A Tutorial. 2022

Peter Shewmaker, and Stavroula A Chrysanthopoulou, and Rowan Iskandar, and Derek Lake, and Earic Jutkowitz
Center for Gerontology and Healthcare Research, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.

Mathematical health policy models, including microsimulation models (MSMs), are widely used to simulate complex processes and predict outcomes consistent with available data. Calibration is a method to estimate parameter values such that model predictions are similar to observed outcomes of interest. Bayesian calibration methods are popular among the available calibration techniques, given their strong theoretical basis and flexibility to incorporate prior beliefs and draw values from the posterior distribution of model parameters and hence the ability to characterize and evaluate parameter uncertainty in the model outcomes. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach to calibrate complex models in which the likelihood is intractable, focusing on measuring the difference between the simulated model predictions and outcomes of interest in observed data. Although ABC methods are increasingly being used, there is limited practical guidance in the medical decision-making literature on approaches to implement ABC to calibrate MSMs. In this tutorial, we describe the Bayesian calibration framework, introduce the ABC approach, and provide step-by-step guidance for implementing an ABC algorithm to calibrate MSMs, using 2 case examples based on a microsimulation model for dementia. We also provide the R code for applying these methods.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D002138 Calibration Determination, by measurement or comparison with a standard, of the correct value of each scale reading on a meter or other measuring instrument; or determination of the settings of a control device that correspond to particular values of voltage, current, frequency or other output. Calibrations
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D006291 Health Policy Decisions, usually developed by government policymakers, for determining present and future objectives pertaining to the health care system. Health Care Policies,Health Policies,Healthcare Policy,National Health Policy,Care Policies, Health,Health Care Policy,Health Policy, National,Healthcare Policies,National Health Policies,Policies, Health,Policies, Health Care,Policies, Healthcare,Policy, Health,Policy, Health Care,Policy, Healthcare
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes

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