Bayesian sequential data assimilation for COVID-19 forecasting. 2022

Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, CIMAT, Guanajuato, Mexico; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis, CA, United States. Electronic address: mdazatorres@cimat.mx.

We introduce a Bayesian sequential data assimilation and forecasting method for non-autonomous dynamical systems. We applied this method to the current COVID-19 pandemic. It is assumed that suitable transmission, epidemic and observation models are available and previously validated. The transmission and epidemic models are coded into a dynamical system. The observation model depends on the dynamical system state variables and parameters, and is cast as a likelihood function. The forecast is sequentially updated over a sliding window of epidemic records as new data becomes available. Prior distributions for the state variables at the new forecasting time are assembled using the dynamical system, calibrated for the previous forecast. Epidemic outbreaks are non-autonomous dynamical systems depending on human behavior, viral evolution and climate, among other factors, rendering it impossible to make reliable long-term epidemic forecasts. We show our forecasting method's performance using a SEIR type model and COVID-19 data from several Mexican localities. Moreover, we derive further insights into the COVID-19 pandemic from our model predictions. The rationale of our approach is that sequential data assimilation is an adequate compromise between data fitting and dynamical system prediction.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D004196 Disease Outbreaks Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS. Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D058873 Pandemics Epidemics of infectious disease that have spread to many countries, often more than one continent, and usually affecting a large number of people. Pandemic

Related Publications

Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
May 2021, ArXiv,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
February 2022, PLoS computational biology,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
December 2020, Bulletin of mathematical biology,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
September 2022, The Canadian journal of statistics = Revue canadienne de statistique,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
January 2021, PloS one,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
January 2020, IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
August 2020, European journal of epidemiology,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
March 2021, medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
January 2021, PloS one,
Maria L Daza-Torres, and Marcos A Capistrán, and Antonio Capella, and J Andrés Christen
February 2024, International journal of environmental research and public health,
Copied contents to your clipboard!