A framework for quantifying climate-informed heavy rainfall change: Implications for adaptation strategies. 2022

Wenpeng Zhao, and Abhishek, and Tsuyoshi Kinouchi, and Raksmey Ang, and Qi Zhuang
Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: wppzhao@gmail.com.

To understand the influence of climate change on heavy rainfalls and reduce the consequential multidimensional risks, we develop a climate-informed and adaptation strategies-related framework by using the information on heavy rainfalls and various socioeconomic factors. For this purpose, we firstly quantify the spatiotemporal characteristics of heavy rainfalls with various durations (1 h to multiple days) and return periods (2-year to 50-year) for the flood-prone country Cambodia, as a case study, during the historical period (1980-2005), mid-century (2040-2065), and late-century (2070-2095), using the latest three hourly climate model datasets under RCP 8.5 and 1 hourly ERA5 reanalysis datasets. A novel conditional artificial neural network (CANN) model is employed for temporal disaggregation to obtain the monthly maximum of 1 hourly rainfall in the future periods and subsequently, a zero-inflated generalized extreme value function (ZIGEV) is applied for extreme value analysis (EVA) to obtain rainfall intensity with different return periods. Secondly, the province-level flood risk change maps are developed based on a novel flood risk change index. The combination of CANN and ZIGEV performs better in EVA than traditional approaches by reducing the uncertainty from the stationarity assumption of temporal disaggregation and bias in the disaggregated rainfall. Rainfall intensity is projected to increase more in higher return periods and shorter durations towards the late-century, predominantly over Southern and Central Cambodia. Projected rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves in the capital city, Phnom Penh, reveal that the occurrence frequency of heavy rainfall in a given duration (e.g., 48 h) is likely to become ~10-fold in the mid-century. Results of province-level flood risk change maps indicate that Southeastern and Northwestern regions should be prioritized for employing adaption strategies. Our results will assist the policymakers in further mapping the flood susceptibility and vulnerability in different spatiotemporal scales across various communities and localities in the country and beyond.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D002947 Cities A large or important municipality of a country, usually a major metropolitan center. Municipalities,Towns
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D000064 Acclimatization Adaptation to a new environment or to a change in the old. Acclimation
D055868 Floods Sudden onset water phenomena with different speed of occurrence. These include flash floods, seasonal river floods, and coastal floods, associated with CYCLONIC STORMS; TIDALWAVES; and storm surges. Flooding, Catastrophic,Catastrophic Flooding,Catastrophic Floodings,Floodings, Catastrophic
D057231 Climate Change Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities. Change, Climate,Changes, Climate,Climate Changes

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