[Development and validation of a prediction model for treatment failure in peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis patients: a multicenter study]. 2022

L Meng, and X Zhu, and L Yang, and X Li, and S Cheng, and S Guo, and X Zhuang, and H Zou, and W Cui
Department of Nephrology, Second Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun 130041, China.

OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a risk prediction model of treatment failure in patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP). METHODS We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD) in 3 dialysis centers in Jilin Province who developed PDAP between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2019. The data collected from the Second Hospital of Jilin University and Second Division of First Hospital of Jilin University) were used as the training dataset and those from Jilin Central Hospital as the validation dataset. We developed a nomogram for predicting treatment failure using a logistic regression model with backward elimination. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by analyzing the C-statistic and the calibration plots. We also plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the nomogram. RESULTS A total of 977 episodes of PDAP were included in the analysis (625 episodes in the training dataset and 352 episodes in the validation dataset). During follow-up, 78 treatment failures occurred in the training dataset and 35 in the validation dataset. A multivariable logistic regression prediction model was established, and the predictors in the final nomogram model included serum albumin, peritoneal dialysate white cell count on day 5, PD duration, and type of causative organisms. The nomogram showed a good performance in predicting treatment failure, with a C-statistic of 0.827 (95% CI: 0.784-0.871) in the training dataset and of 0.825 (95% CI: 0.743-0.908) in the validation dataset. The nomogram also performed well in calibration in both the training and validation datasets. CONCLUSIONS The established nomogram has a good accuracy in estimating the risk of treatment failure in PDAP patients.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D010530 Peritoneal Dialysis Dialysis fluid being introduced into and removed from the peritoneal cavity as either a continuous or an intermittent procedure. Dialyses, Peritoneal,Dialysis, Peritoneal,Peritoneal Dialyses
D010538 Peritonitis INFLAMMATION of the PERITONEUM lining the ABDOMINAL CAVITY as the result of infectious, autoimmune, or chemical processes. Primary peritonitis is due to infection of the PERITONEAL CAVITY via hematogenous or lymphatic spread and without intra-abdominal source. Secondary peritonitis arises from the ABDOMINAL CAVITY itself through RUPTURE or ABSCESS of intra-abdominal organs. Primary Peritonitis,Secondary Peritonitis,Peritonitis, Primary,Peritonitis, Secondary
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D016896 Treatment Outcome Evaluation undertaken to assess the results or consequences of management and procedures used in combating disease in order to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and practicability of these interventions in individual cases or series. Rehabilitation Outcome,Treatment Effectiveness,Clinical Effectiveness,Clinical Efficacy,Patient-Relevant Outcome,Treatment Efficacy,Effectiveness, Clinical,Effectiveness, Treatment,Efficacy, Clinical,Efficacy, Treatment,Outcome, Patient-Relevant,Outcome, Rehabilitation,Outcome, Treatment,Outcomes, Patient-Relevant,Patient Relevant Outcome,Patient-Relevant Outcomes
D017211 Treatment Failure A measure of the quality of health care by assessment of unsuccessful results of management and procedures used in combating disease, in individual cases or series. Failure, Treatment,Failures, Treatment,Treatment Failures

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