Response rates and minimal residual disease outcomes as potential surrogates for progression-free survival in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. 2022

Patrick Daniele, and Carla Mamolo, and Joseph C Cappelleri, and Timothy Bell, and Alexander Neuhof, and Gabriel Tremblay, and Mihaela Musat, and Anna Forsythe
Purple Squirrel Economics, a Cytel Company, Montreal, Canada.

Progression-free survival (PFS) is a common primary endpoint in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Patients with NDMM typically have longer PFS and are more likely to achieve minimal residual disease (MRD) or complete response (CR) compared to patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Response-based surrogate endpoints may hold value given the longer follow-up time required to evaluate PFS in NDMM. In this work, systematic literature reviews of Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases (2010-06/2020) and relevant congresses (2018-2020) were performed to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and real-world studies in NDMM reporting median PFS and objective response. Associations between PFS and each response endpoint were evaluated using Pearson's product-moment correlation weighted by sample size in each RCT arm. Unadjusted and adjusted weighted linear regression models were applied to estimate the gain in median PFS associated with each response endpoint. Statistically significant correlations were identified for median PFS with overall response rate (ORR; Pearson r = 0.59), CR (r = 0.48), stringent CR (sCR; r = 0.68), and MRD (r = 0.69). The unadjusted models estimated 0.50 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.64; p<0.001), 0.42 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.58; p<0.001), 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58, 1.52; p<0.001), and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.12, 0.58; p = 0.006) months of median PFS gained per point of ORR, CR, sCR, and MRD, respectively. Associations for median PFS remained statistically significant in models adjusted for age and treatment type with ORR (0.35, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.49; p<0.001), and adjusted for age and International Staging System risk stage with CR (0.29, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.41; p<0.001). Due to small sample size, adjusted models could not be constructed for sCR or MRD. Nevertheless, evidence of significant survival benefit (p<0.05) associated with MRD negativity and sCR was identified across real-world studies. These findings provide support for the use of response outcomes as surrogate endpoints to estimate PFS benefit in NDMM.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009101 Multiple Myeloma A malignancy of mature PLASMA CELLS engaging in monoclonal immunoglobulin production. It is characterized by hyperglobulinemia, excess Bence-Jones proteins (free monoclonal IMMUNOGLOBULIN LIGHT CHAINS) in the urine, skeletal destruction, bone pain, and fractures. Other features include ANEMIA; HYPERCALCEMIA; and RENAL INSUFFICIENCY. Myeloma, Plasma-Cell,Kahler Disease,Myeloma, Multiple,Myeloma-Multiple,Myelomatosis,Plasma Cell Myeloma,Cell Myeloma, Plasma,Cell Myelomas, Plasma,Disease, Kahler,Multiple Myelomas,Myeloma Multiple,Myeloma, Plasma Cell,Myeloma-Multiples,Myelomas, Multiple,Myelomas, Plasma Cell,Myelomas, Plasma-Cell,Myelomatoses,Plasma Cell Myelomas,Plasma-Cell Myeloma,Plasma-Cell Myelomas
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000077982 Progression-Free Survival Length of time during and after the treatment of a disease, such as cancer, that a patient lives with the disease but the disease does not get worse. Event-Free Survival,Event Free Survival,Progression Free Survival,Survival, Event-Free,Survival, Progression-Free
D015415 Biomarkers Measurable and quantifiable biological parameters (e.g., specific enzyme concentration, specific hormone concentration, specific gene phenotype distribution in a population, presence of biological substances) which serve as indices for health- and physiology-related assessments, such as disease risk, psychiatric disorders, ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE and its effects, disease diagnosis; METABOLIC PROCESSES; SUBSTANCE ABUSE; PREGNANCY; cell line development; EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES; etc. Biochemical Markers,Biological Markers,Biomarker,Clinical Markers,Immunologic Markers,Laboratory Markers,Markers, Biochemical,Markers, Biological,Markers, Clinical,Markers, Immunologic,Markers, Laboratory,Markers, Serum,Markers, Surrogate,Markers, Viral,Serum Markers,Surrogate Markers,Viral Markers,Biochemical Marker,Biologic Marker,Biologic Markers,Clinical Marker,Immune Marker,Immune Markers,Immunologic Marker,Laboratory Marker,Marker, Biochemical,Marker, Biological,Marker, Clinical,Marker, Immunologic,Marker, Laboratory,Marker, Serum,Marker, Surrogate,Serum Marker,Surrogate End Point,Surrogate End Points,Surrogate Endpoint,Surrogate Endpoints,Surrogate Marker,Viral Marker,Biological Marker,End Point, Surrogate,End Points, Surrogate,Endpoint, Surrogate,Endpoints, Surrogate,Marker, Biologic,Marker, Immune,Marker, Viral,Markers, Biologic,Markers, Immune
D016896 Treatment Outcome Evaluation undertaken to assess the results or consequences of management and procedures used in combating disease in order to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and practicability of these interventions in individual cases or series. Rehabilitation Outcome,Treatment Effectiveness,Clinical Effectiveness,Clinical Efficacy,Patient-Relevant Outcome,Treatment Efficacy,Effectiveness, Clinical,Effectiveness, Treatment,Efficacy, Clinical,Efficacy, Treatment,Outcome, Patient-Relevant,Outcome, Rehabilitation,Outcome, Treatment,Outcomes, Patient-Relevant,Patient Relevant Outcome,Patient-Relevant Outcomes
D018365 Neoplasm, Residual Remnant of a tumor or cancer after primary, potentially curative therapy. Minimal Residual Disease,Residual Cancer,Residual Tumor,Minimal Disease, Residual,Residual Disease, Minimal,Residual Neoplasm,Residual Tumour,Cancer, Residual,Minimal Residual Diseases,Residual Cancers,Residual Minimal Disease,Residual Minimal Diseases,Residual Neoplasms,Residual Tumors,Residual Tumours,Tumour, Residual
D018572 Disease-Free Survival Period after successful treatment in which there is no appearance of the symptoms or effects of the disease. Survival, Disease-Free,Disease Free Survival,Survival, Disease Free

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