Weather and butterfly responses: a framework for understanding population dynamics in terms of species' life-cycles and extreme climatic events. 2022

Andreu Ubach, and Ferran Páramo, and Marc Prohom, and Constantí Stefanescu
Natural Sciences Museum of Granollers, Francesc Macià, 51, S08402, Granollers, Barcelona, Spain. aubach@mcng.cat.

Understanding population responses to environmental conditions is key in the current context of climate change and the extreme climatic events that are threatening biodiversity in an unprecedented way. In this work, we provide a framework for understanding butterfly population responses to weather and extreme climatic seasons by taking into account topographic heterogeneity, species' life-cycles and density-dependent processes. We used a citizen-science database of Mediterranean butterflies that contains long-term population data (28 years) on 78 butterfly species from 146 sites in the Mediterranean mesic and alpine climate regions. Climatic data were obtained from 93 meteorological stations operating during this period near the butterfly sites. We studied how seasonal precipitation and temperature affect population growth while taking into account the effects of density dependence. Our results reveal (i) the beneficial effects of winter and spring precipitation for butterfly populations, which are most evident in the Mediterranean region and in univoltine species, and mainly affect the larval stage; (ii) a general negative effect of summer rain in the previous year, which affects the adult stage; and (iii) a consistent negative effect of mild autumns and winters on population growth. In addition, density dependence played a major role in the population dynamics of most species, except for those with long-term negative population trends. Our analyses also provide compelling evidence that both extreme population levels in previous years and extreme climatic seasons in the current year provoke population crashes and explosions, especially in the Mediterranean mesic region.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011157 Population Dynamics The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population. Malthusianism,Neomalthusianism,Demographic Aging,Demographic Transition,Optimum Population,Population Decrease,Population Pressure,Population Replacement,Population Theory,Residential Mobility,Rural-Urban Migration,Stable Population,Stationary Population,Aging, Demographic,Decrease, Population,Decreases, Population,Demographic Transitions,Dynamics, Population,Migration, Rural-Urban,Migrations, Rural-Urban,Mobilities, Residential,Mobility, Residential,Optimum Populations,Population Decreases,Population Pressures,Population Replacements,Population Theories,Population, Optimum,Population, Stable,Population, Stationary,Populations, Optimum,Populations, Stable,Populations, Stationary,Pressure, Population,Pressures, Population,Replacement, Population,Replacements, Population,Residential Mobilities,Rural Urban Migration,Rural-Urban Migrations,Stable Populations,Stationary Populations,Theories, Population,Theory, Population,Transition, Demographic,Transitions, Demographic
D002080 Butterflies Slender-bodies diurnal insects having large, broad wings often strikingly colored and patterned. Butterfly
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D014887 Weather The state of the ATMOSPHERE over minutes to months. Fog,Fogs
D017753 Ecosystem A functional system which includes the organisms of a natural community together with their environment. (McGraw Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed) Ecosystems,Biome,Ecologic System,Ecologic Systems,Ecological System,Habitat,Niche, Ecological,System, Ecological,Systems, Ecological,Biomes,Ecological Niche,Ecological Systems,Habitats,System, Ecologic,Systems, Ecologic
D057231 Climate Change Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities. Change, Climate,Changes, Climate,Climate Changes

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