Biomaterial Database

Global disease burden of COPD from 1990 to 2019 and prediction of future disease burden trend in China. 2022

W Hu, and L Fang, and H Zhang, and R Ni, and G Pan

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess and predict the disease burden attributable to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a timely, comprehensive, and reliable manner, thereby mitigating the health hazards of COPD. METHODS Data on the disease burden owing to COPD from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Linear regression analysis was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized rates. Non-parametric tests were used for subgroup analysis. The Bayesian age-period-cohot (BAPC) model integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the disease burden over the next 25 years. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Norpred APC model. RESULTS Globally, the COPD-related age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 216.48/100,000 in 1990 to 200.49/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of -0.33. But the number of new cases increased from 8,722,966 in 1990 to 16, 214, 828 in 2019. Trends in prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were the same as incidence. There were significant differences in disease burden between the genders and all age groups (P < 0.05) in China. The projections suggested that the COPD-related number of new cases and deaths in China would increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. CONCLUSIONS The number of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs had all increased in China in the past and would continue to grow over the next 25 years. Therefore, measures should be taken to target risk factors and high-risk groups.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008297	Male		Males
D002681	China	A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean.	Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D005260	Female		Females
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000071219	Global Burden of Disease	Use of various metrics to measure death and loss of health due to diseases, injuries and RISK FACTORS for all regions of the world.	Global Disease Burden,Disease Burden, Global,Disease Global Burdens,Global Disease Burdens
D000328	Adult	A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available.	Adults
D001499	Bayes Theorem	A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.	Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D012307	Risk Factors	An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent.	Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D014943	Global Health	A multi- and interdisciplinary field concerned with improving health and achieving equity in health for all people. It transcends national boundaries, promotes cooperation and collaboration within and beyond health science fields, and combines population-based disease prevention with individually-based patient care.	International Health Problems,World Health,International Health,Worldwide Health,Health Problem, International,Health Problems, International,Health, Global,Health, International,Health, World,Health, Worldwide,Healths, International,International Health Problem,International Healths,Problem, International Health,Problems, International Health
D017281	Cost of Illness	The personal cost of disease which may be economic, social, or psychological. The cost of illness may be reflected in absenteeism, productivity, response to treatment, peace of mind, or QUALITY OF LIFE. It differs from HEALTH CARE COSTS, the societal cost of providing services related to the delivery of health care.	Burden Of Disease,Burden of Illness,Disease Burden,Disease Costs,Cost of Disease,Cost of Sickness,Costs of Disease,Disease Cost,Economic Burden of Disease,Sickness Cost,Burden Of Diseases,Burden, Disease,Cost, Disease,Disease Burdens,Illness Burden,Illness Burdens,Illness Cost,Illness Costs,Sickness Costs