Modelling transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis between Irish dairy cattle herds. 2022

Floor Biemans, and Jamie Tratalos, and Sandie Arnoux, and George Ramsbottom, and Simon J More, and Pauline Ezanno
Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, UCD School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin, D04 W6F6, Ireland. floor.biemans@oniris-nantes.fr.

Bovine paratuberculosis is an endemic disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map). Map is mainly transmitted between herds through movement of infected but undetected animals. Our objective was to investigate the effect of observed herd characteristics on Map spread on a national scale in Ireland. Herd characteristics included herd size, number of breeding bulls introduced, number of animals purchased and sold, and number of herds the focal herd purchases from and sells to. We used these characteristics to classify herds in accordance with their probability of becoming infected and of spreading infection to other herds. A stochastic individual-based model was used to represent herd demography and Map infection dynamics of each dairy cattle herd in Ireland. Data on herd size and composition, as well as birth, death, and culling events were used to characterize herd demography. Herds were connected with each other through observed animal trade movements. Data consisted of 13 353 herds, with 4 494 768 dairy female animals, and 72 991 breeding bulls. We showed that the probability of an infected animal being introduced into the herd increases both with an increasing number of animals that enter a herd via trade and number of herds from which animals are sourced. Herds that both buy and sell a lot of animals pose the highest infection risk to other herds and could therefore play an important role in Map spread between herds.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007494 Ireland A country in western Europe, occupying five-sixths of the island of Ireland in the North Atlantic Ocean, west of Great Britain. The capital is Dublin. Eire,Ireland, Republic of,Irish Free State
D008297 Male Males
D010283 Paratuberculosis A chronic GASTROENTERITIS in RUMINANTS caused by MYCOBACTERIUM AVIUM SUBSPECIES PARATUBERCULOSIS. Johne's Disease,Johne Disease,Disease, Johne,Disease, Johne's,Johnes Disease,Paratuberculoses
D002417 Cattle Domesticated bovine animals of the genus Bos, usually kept on a farm or ranch and used for the production of meat or dairy products or for heavy labor. Beef Cow,Bos grunniens,Bos indicus,Bos indicus Cattle,Bos taurus,Cow,Cow, Domestic,Dairy Cow,Holstein Cow,Indicine Cattle,Taurine Cattle,Taurus Cattle,Yak,Zebu,Beef Cows,Bos indicus Cattles,Cattle, Bos indicus,Cattle, Indicine,Cattle, Taurine,Cattle, Taurus,Cattles, Bos indicus,Cattles, Indicine,Cattles, Taurine,Cattles, Taurus,Cow, Beef,Cow, Dairy,Cow, Holstein,Cows,Dairy Cows,Domestic Cow,Domestic Cows,Indicine Cattles,Taurine Cattles,Taurus Cattles,Yaks,Zebus
D002418 Cattle Diseases Diseases of domestic cattle of the genus Bos. It includes diseases of cows, yaks, and zebus. Bovine Diseases,Bovine Disease,Cattle Disease,Disease, Bovine,Disease, Cattle,Diseases, Bovine,Diseases, Cattle
D003612 Dairying Production, storage, and distribution of DAIRY PRODUCTS. Dairy Industry,Dairy Industries,Industries, Dairy,Industry, Dairy
D005260 Female Females
D000090005 Epidemiological Models Mathematical models of the transmission of infectious diseases. They predict spread of a disease by incorporating disease-related (e.g., infectious agent, mode of transmission, latent period, infectious period) and abiotic factors (e.g., social, cultural, demographic, and geographic factors). Communicable Disease Models,Compartmental Models,Models, Epidemiological,SIR Models,SIS Model,Susceptible Infected Recovered Models,Susceptible Infected Susceptible Model,Communicable Disease Model,Compartmental Model,Disease Model, Communicable,Epidemiological Model,Model, Communicable Disease,Model, Compartmental,Model, Epidemiological,Model, SIS,SIR Model,SIS Models
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D015995 Prevalence The total number of cases of a given disease in a specified population at a designated time. It is differentiated from INCIDENCE, which refers to the number of new cases in the population at a given time. Period Prevalence,Point Prevalence,Period Prevalences,Point Prevalences,Prevalence, Period,Prevalence, Point,Prevalences

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