Using machine learning to examine predictors of treatment goal change among individuals seeking treatment for alcohol use disorder. 2022

Frank J Schwebel, and Noah N Emery, and Rory A Pfund, and Matthew R Pearson, and Katie Witkiewitz
Center on Alcohol, Substance Use, and Addictions, Department of Psychology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA. Electronic address: fschwebel@unm.edu.

The goals of individuals seeking treatment for alcohol use disorder (AUD) are typically quantified as abstinent or nonabstinent (e.g., moderate drinking) goals. However, treatment goals can vary over time and be influenced by life circumstances. This study aims to identify predictors of treatment goal change and direction of change from baseline to six-month follow-up among individuals seeking treatment for AUD. This study is a secondary analysis of data from the Relapse Replication and Extension Project. The study included participants who completed assessments at baseline and six-month follow-up in the analysis (n = 441). We used decision trees to examine 111 potential predictors of treatment goal change. The study cross-validated results using random forests. The team examined changes in goal between baseline and follow-up (Decision Tree 1) and quantified them as being toward or away from a complete abstinence goal (Decision Tree 2). Nearly 50 % of the sample changed their treatment goal from baseline to 6 months, and 68.7 % changed from a nonabstinence goal toward a complete abstinence goal. The study identified seven unique predictors of goal change. The most common predictors of changing a treatment goal were number of recent treatment sessions prior to enrolling in the study, other substance use, negative affect, anxiety, social support, and baseline drinks per drinking day. Participants with a greater number of recent treatment sessions and who sought social support were most likely to change their goal. Additionally, individuals with more substance use tended to change away from complete abstinence goals. Cross-validation supported baseline drinks per drinking day, social support, baseline maximum blood alcohol concentration (BAC), lifetime tobacco use, baseline average BAC, lifetime cocaine use, Inventory of Drinking Situations total score, and Situational Confidence Questionnaire average score as important predictors. This study identified seven unique predictors of treatment goal change while in AUD treatment. Prior treatment, drinking to cope, and social support were most associated with goal changes. This information can inform providers who seek to understand factors associated with treatment goal selection and changes in goals during treatment.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006040 Goals The end-result or objective, which may be specified or required in advance. Goal
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000067401 Blood Alcohol Content Mass of alcohol per unit of BLOOD volume. Blood Alcohol Concentration,Blood Alcohol Level,Alcohol Concentration, Blood,Alcohol Content, Blood,Alcohol Level, Blood,Concentration, Blood Alcohol,Content, Blood Alcohol,Level, Blood Alcohol
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000428 Alcohol Drinking Behaviors associated with the ingesting of ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, including social drinking. Alcohol Consumption,Alcohol Intake,Drinking, Alcohol,Alcohol Drinking Habits,Alcohol Drinking Habit,Alcohol Intakes,Consumption, Alcohol,Drinking Habit, Alcohol,Habit, Alcohol Drinking,Habits, Alcohol Drinking,Intake, Alcohol
D000437 Alcoholism A primary, chronic disease with genetic, psychosocial, and environmental factors influencing its development and manifestations. The disease is often progressive and fatal. It is characterized by impaired control over drinking, preoccupation with the drug alcohol, use of alcohol despite adverse consequences, and distortions in thinking, most notably denial. Each of these symptoms may be continuous or periodic. (Morse & Flavin for the Joint Commission of the National Council on Alcoholism and Drug Dependence and the American Society of Addiction Medicine to Study the Definition and Criteria for the Diagnosis of Alcoholism: in JAMA 1992;268:1012-4) Alcohol Abuse,Alcoholic Intoxication, Chronic,Ethanol Abuse,Alcohol Addiction,Alcohol Dependence,Alcohol Use Disorder,Abuse, Alcohol,Abuse, Ethanol,Addiction, Alcohol,Alcohol Use Disorders,Chronic Alcoholic Intoxication,Dependence, Alcohol,Intoxication, Chronic Alcoholic,Use Disorders, Alcohol
D019966 Substance-Related Disorders Disorders related to substance use or abuse. Chemical Dependence,Drug Abuse,Drug Addiction,Drug Dependence,Drug Habituation,Drug Use Disorder,Drug Use Disorders,Organic Mental Disorders, Substance-Induced,Substance Abuse,Substance Dependence,Substance Related Disorder,Substance Use,Substance Use Disorder,Substance Use Disorders,Prescription Drug Abuse,Substance Addiction,Abuse, Drug,Abuse, Prescription Drug,Abuse, Substance,Addiction, Drug,Addiction, Substance,Chemical Dependences,Dependence, Chemical,Dependence, Drug,Dependence, Substance,Dependences, Chemical,Disorder, Drug Use,Disorder, Substance Related,Disorder, Substance Use,Disorders, Substance Related,Drug Abuse, Prescription,Habituation, Drug,Organic Mental Disorders, Substance Induced,Related Disorder, Substance,Related Disorders, Substance,Substance Abuses,Substance Uses,Use, Substance

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