Prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis using machine learning models. 2022

You Zhou, and Fei Han, and Xiao-Lei Shi, and Jun-Xian Zhang, and Guang-Yao Li, and Chen-Chen Yuan, and Guo-Tao Lu, and Liang-Hao Hu, and Jia-Jia Pan, and Wei-Ming Xiao, and Guang-Huai Yao
Pancreatic Center, Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, China.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the most common pancreatic disease. Predicting the severity of AP is critical for making preventive decisions. However, the performance of existing scoring systems in predicting AP severity was not satisfactory. The purpose of this study was to develop predictive models for the severity of AP using machine learning (ML) algorithms and explore the important predictors that affected the prediction results. The data of 441 patients in the Department of Gastroenterology in our hospital were analyzed retrospectively. The demographic data, blood routine and blood biochemical indexes, and the CTSI score were collected to develop five different ML predictive models to predict the severity of AP. The performance of the models was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The important predictors were determined by ranking the feature importance of the predictive factors. Compared to other ML models, the extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost) showed better performance in predicting severe AP, with an AUC of 0.906, an accuracy of 0.902, a sensitivity of 0.700, a specificity of 0.961, and a F1 score of 0.764. Further analysis showed that the CTSI score, ALB, LDH, and NEUT were the important predictors of the severity of AP. The results showed that the XGBoost algorithm can accurately predict the severity of AP, which can provide an assistance for the clinicians to identify severe AP at an early stage.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D010195 Pancreatitis INFLAMMATION of the PANCREAS. Pancreatitis is classified as acute unless there are computed tomographic or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographic findings of CHRONIC PANCREATITIS (International Symposium on Acute Pancreatitis, Atlanta, 1992). The two most common forms of acute pancreatitis are ALCOHOLIC PANCREATITIS and gallstone pancreatitis. Acute Edematous Pancreatitis,Acute Pancreatitis,Pancreatic Parenchyma with Edema,Pancreatic Parenchymal Edema,Pancreatitis, Acute,Pancreatitis, Acute Edematous,Peripancreatic Fat Necrosis,Acute Edematous Pancreatitides,Acute Pancreatitides,Edema, Pancreatic Parenchymal,Edematous Pancreatitides, Acute,Edematous Pancreatitis, Acute,Fat Necrosis, Peripancreatic,Necrosis, Peripancreatic Fat,Pancreatic Parenchymal Edemas,Pancreatitides, Acute,Pancreatitides, Acute Edematous,Parenchymal Edema, Pancreatic,Peripancreatic Fat Necroses
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000208 Acute Disease Disease having a short and relatively severe course. Acute Diseases,Disease, Acute,Diseases, Acute
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D012720 Severity of Illness Index Levels within a diagnostic group which are established by various measurement criteria applied to the seriousness of a patient's disorder. Illness Index Severities,Illness Index Severity

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