Biomaterial Database

Risk homeostasis theory and traffic accident data. 1986

L Evans

The risk homeostasis theory posits, in essence, that a control mechanism analogous to the thermal homeostatic system in warm-blooded animals tends to keep risk per unit time constant, and, as a consequence, the number of traffic accidents per unit time of driving also tends to remain constant, essentially independent of changes in the traffic safety system. It is the purpose of the present research to examine the validity of this claim using a wide variety of traffic accident data. All the data examined are found to be incompatible with the risk homeostasis theory. The only specific field accident data offered in the literature to support the risk homeostasis theory are found to, in fact, refute the theory. The accident data provide evidence that a rich variety of user responses occur. While it is possible for users to collectively respond in such a way that safety benefits are completely cancelled, such a response is not particularly common; it is certainly not universally occurring, as suggested by the risk homeostasis theory. It is concluded that the risk homeostasis theory should be rejected because there is no convincing evidence supporting it and much evidence refuting it.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008962	Models, Theoretical	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D009026	Mortality	All deaths reported in a given population.	CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000063	Accidents, Traffic	Accidents on streets, roads, and highways involving drivers, passengers, pedestrians, or vehicles. Traffic accidents refer to AUTOMOBILES (passenger cars, buses, and trucks), BICYCLING, and MOTORCYCLES but not OFF-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES; RAILROADS nor snowmobiles.	Traffic Collisions,Traffic Crashes,Traffic Accidents,Accident, Traffic,Collision, Traffic,Collisions, Traffic,Crashes, Traffic,Traffic Accident,Traffic Collision
D012306	Risk	The probability that an event will occur. It encompasses a variety of measures of the probability of a generally unfavorable outcome.	Relative Risk,Relative Risks,Risk, Relative,Risks,Risks, Relative
D012449	Safety	Freedom from exposure to danger and protection from the occurrence or risk of injury or loss. It suggests optimal precautions in the workplace, on the street, in the home, etc., and includes personal safety as well as the safety of property.	Safeties
D014481	United States	A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.