Generalization Bias in Science. 2022

Uwe Peters, and Alexander Krauss, and Oliver Braganza
Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence, University of Cambridge.

Many scientists routinely generalize from study samples to larger populations. It is commonly assumed that this cognitive process of scientific induction is a voluntary inference in which researchers assess the generalizability of their data and then draw conclusions accordingly. We challenge this view and argue for a novel account. The account describes scientific induction as involving by default a generalization bias that operates automatically and frequently leads researchers to unintentionally generalize their findings without sufficient evidence. The result is unwarranted, overgeneralized conclusions. We support this account of scientific induction by integrating a range of disparate findings from across the cognitive sciences that have until now not been connected to research on the nature of scientific induction. The view that scientific induction involves by default a generalization bias calls for a revision of the current thinking about scientific induction and highlights an overlooked cause of the replication crisis in the sciences. Commonly proposed interventions to tackle scientific overgeneralizations that may feed into this crisis need to be supplemented with cognitive debiasing strategies against generalization bias to most effectively improve science.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003071 Cognition Intellectual or mental process whereby an organism obtains knowledge. Cognitive Function,Cognitions,Cognitive Functions,Function, Cognitive,Functions, Cognitive
D005793 Generalization, Psychological The phenomenon of an organism's responding to all situations similar to one in which it has been conditioned. Generalization (Psychology),Generalization, Psychology,Generalizations (Psychology),Generalizations, Psychological,Generalizations, Psychology,Psychological Generalization,Psychological Generalizations,Psychology Generalization,Psychology Generalizations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D015982 Bias Any deviation of results or inferences from the truth, or processes leading to such deviation. Bias can result from several sources: one-sided or systematic variations in measurement from the true value (systematic error); flaws in study design; deviation of inferences, interpretations, or analyses based on flawed data or data collection; etc. There is no sense of prejudice or subjectivity implied in the assessment of bias under these conditions. Aggregation Bias,Bias, Aggregation,Bias, Ecological,Bias, Statistical,Bias, Systematic,Ecological Bias,Outcome Measurement Errors,Statistical Bias,Systematic Bias,Bias, Epidemiologic,Biases,Biases, Ecological,Biases, Statistical,Ecological Biases,Ecological Fallacies,Ecological Fallacy,Epidemiologic Biases,Experimental Bias,Fallacies, Ecological,Fallacy, Ecological,Scientific Bias,Statistical Biases,Truncation Bias,Truncation Biases,Bias, Experimental,Bias, Scientific,Bias, Truncation,Biase, Epidemiologic,Biases, Epidemiologic,Biases, Truncation,Epidemiologic Biase,Error, Outcome Measurement,Errors, Outcome Measurement,Outcome Measurement Error
D019336 Cognitive Science The study of the precise nature of different mental tasks and the operations of the brain that enable them to be performed, engaging branches of psychology, computer science, philosophy, and linguistics. (Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed) Cognitive Sciences,Science, Cognitive,Sciences, Cognitive

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