Mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease above model for end-stage liver disease 3.0 of 40. 2023

W Ray Kim, and Ajitha Mannalithara, and Paul Y Kwo, and C Andrew Bonham, and Allison Kwong
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine , Stanford University School of Medicine , Redwood City , California , USA.

Since the implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to determine waitlist priority for liver transplant (LT) in 2002, the score has been capped at 40. Recently, the MELD 3.0 score was proposed to improve upon MELD-Na. Here, we examine waitlist mortality and LT outcomes in patients with MELD 3.0 ≥ 40 to assess the potential impact of uncapping the score. Adult waitlist registrations for LT from January 2016 to December 2021 were identified in the registry data from the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network. All MELD 3.0 scores were calculated at registration and thereafter. Waitlist mortality for up to 30 days was calculated as well as post-LT survival. There were 54,060 new waitlist registrations during the study period, of whom 2820 (5.2%) had MELD 3.0 ≥ 40 at listing. The 30-day waitlist mortality was high in these patients, yet it increased further in proportion with MELD 3.0 up to a score of 55 with 30-day mortality of 58.3% for MELD 3.0 of 40-44 and 82.4% for ≥50. The multivariable hazard ratio was 1.13 for each point of MELD 3.0, adjusting for several variables including acute-on-chronic liver failure. The number of LT recipients with MELD 40 at transplant increased from 155 in 2002 to 752 in 2021. Posttransplant survival was comparable across MELD strata including MELD of 35-39. MELD 3.0 scores beyond 40 are associated with increasing waitlist mortality without adversely affecting posttransplant outcome. Uncapping the MELD score in waitlist candidates may lead to greater survival benefit from LT.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009927 Tissue and Organ Procurement The administrative procedures involved with acquiring TISSUES or organs for TRANSPLANTATION through various programs, systems, or organizations. These procedures include obtaining consent from TISSUE DONORS and arranging for transportation of donated tissues and organs, after TISSUE HARVESTING, to HOSPITALS for processing and transplantation. Organ Procurement,Organ Procurement Systems,Organ Shortage,Tissue Procurement,Tissue Shortage,Donor Cards,Organ Donation,Required Organ Donation Request,Required Request,Tissue Donation,Donor Card,Organ Donations,Organ Procurement System,Organ Procurements,Required Requests,Shortage, Tissue,Tissue Donations,Tissue Procurements,Tissue Shortages
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D012720 Severity of Illness Index Levels within a diagnostic group which are established by various measurement criteria applied to the seriousness of a patient's disorder. Illness Index Severities,Illness Index Severity
D014850 Waiting Lists Prospective patient listings for appointments or treatments. List, Waiting,Lists, Waiting,Waiting List
D016016 Proportional Hazards Models Statistical models used in survival analysis that assert that the effect of the study factors on the hazard rate in the study population is multiplicative and does not change over time. Cox Model,Cox Proportional Hazards Model,Hazard Model,Hazards Model,Hazards Models,Models, Proportional Hazards,Proportional Hazard Model,Proportional Hazards Model,Cox Models,Cox Proportional Hazards Models,Hazard Models,Proportional Hazard Models,Hazard Model, Proportional,Hazard Models, Proportional,Hazards Model, Proportional,Hazards Models, Proportional,Model, Cox,Model, Hazard,Model, Hazards,Model, Proportional Hazard,Model, Proportional Hazards,Models, Cox,Models, Hazard,Models, Hazards,Models, Proportional Hazard
D016031 Liver Transplantation The transference of a part of or an entire liver from one human or animal to another. Grafting, Liver,Hepatic Transplantation,Liver Transplant,Transplantation, Hepatic,Transplantation, Liver,Hepatic Transplantations,Liver Grafting,Liver Transplantations,Liver Transplants,Transplant, Liver
D058625 End Stage Liver Disease Final stage of a liver disease when the liver failure is irreversible and LIVER TRANSPLANTATION is needed. Chronic Liver Failure,Liver Failure, Chronic,Chronic Liver Failures,Failure, Chronic Liver,Failures, Chronic Liver,Liver Failures, Chronic

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