Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of county-level carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province, China. 2023

Huibo Qi, and Xinyi Shen, and Fei Long, and Meijuan Liu, and Xiaowei Gao
College of Economics and Management, Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Agricultural & Forestry University, Zhejiang Province Key Cultivating Think Tank, Hangzhou, 310000, China.

Zhejiang Province is a "demonstration area for high-quality development and construction of common prosperity" in China. Moreover, the county is the basic unit and power source for the economic development of Zhejiang Province. Therefore, the research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of county-level carbon emissions is of great significance for Zhejiang Province to achieve the strategic goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Based on the carbon emissions and socio-economic data of 62 counties in Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2020, the spatial dependence and agglomeration of county-level carbon emissions are analyzed through the spatial autocorrelation test and local spatial autocorrelation test respectively. According to the spatial-temporal characteristics of county-level carbon emissions revealed by the index of Moran's I and local Moran's I, the spatial error STIRPAT model is used to study the influencing factors of county-level carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province, China. The main results are as follows: (1) The total amount of county-level carbon emissions of 62 counties fluctuates from 259.69 to 326.28 million tons and shows a growth trend. (2) Moran's I index is between 0.369 and 0.399. The county-level carbon emissions have a significant spatial correlation, and the spatial agglomeration trend is relatively stable, which is consistent with the hypothesis of the geographical polarization effect. (3) High-high agglomeration counties are concentrated in the northeast of Zhejiang Province, while low-low agglomeration counties are mainly in the southwest. (4) The relationship between county per capita GDP and carbon emissions has not been "decoupled," because when other variables remain unchanged, the county's total carbon emissions will increase by 2.866% for every 1% increase in the county's per capita GDP; the increase of the proportion of secondary industry contributes to the decline of carbon emissions, and the low-carbon effect brought by large-scale industrial development as well as scientific and technological innovation has not yet appeared. (5) The estimate of the spatial coefficient λ was 0.324, which illustrates that the carbon emission of a single county is positively affected by the carbon emission of the neighboring counties, and other socio-economic factors affecting carbon emission among counties also have a spatial correlation. Therefore, the policy of realizing regional coordinated development as well as the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals should not only focus on industrial layout, but also take a dynamic and comprehensive consideration from a spatial perspective.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D002244 Carbon A nonmetallic element with atomic symbol C, atomic number 6, and atomic weight [12.0096; 12.0116]. It may occur as several different allotropes including DIAMOND; CHARCOAL; and GRAPHITE; and as SOOT from incompletely burned fuel. Carbon-12,Vitreous Carbon,Carbon 12,Carbon, Vitreous
D002245 Carbon Dioxide A colorless, odorless gas that can be formed by the body and is necessary for the respiration cycle of plants and animals. Carbonic Anhydride,Anhydride, Carbonic,Dioxide, Carbon
D002681 China A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean. Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D000067896 Industrial Development Activity concerned with the planning and building of industries through manufacturing, provision of specialized services, and COMMERCE. Industrialization,Technology Development,Development, Industrial,Development, Technology,Developments, Industrial,Industrial Developments,Technology Developments
D057217 Economic Development Mobilization of human, financial, capital, physical and or natural resources to generate goods and services. Development, Economic,Economic Growth,Growth, Economic
D062206 Spatial Analysis Investigative techniques which measure the topological, geometric, and or geographic properties of the entities studied. Kernel Density Estimation,Kriging,Spacial Analysis,Spatial Autocorrelation,Spatial Dependency,Spatial Interpolation,Analyses, Spacial,Analyses, Spatial,Analysis, Spacial,Analysis, Spatial,Autocorrelation, Spatial,Autocorrelations, Spatial,Density Estimation, Kernel,Density Estimations, Kernel,Dependencies, Spatial,Dependency, Spatial,Estimation, Kernel Density,Estimations, Kernel Density,Interpolation, Spatial,Interpolations, Spatial,Kernel Density Estimations,Krigings,Spacial Analyses,Spatial Analyses,Spatial Autocorrelations,Spatial Dependencies,Spatial Interpolations

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