Machine learning prediction of postoperative major adverse cardiovascular events in geriatric patients: a prospective cohort study. 2022

Xiran Peng, and Tao Zhu, and Tong Wang, and Fengjun Wang, and Ke Li, and Xuechao Hao
Department of Anesthesiology, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, PO Box 610041, Chengdu, China.

Postoperative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) account for more than one-third of perioperative deaths. Geriatric patients are more vulnerable to postoperative MACEs than younger patients. Identifying high-risk patients in advance can help with clinical decision making and improve prognosis. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model for the preoperative prediction of postoperative MACEs in geriatric patients. We collected patients' clinical data and laboratory tests prospectively. All patients over 65 years who underwent surgeries in West China Hospital of Sichuan University from June 25, 2019 to June 29, 2020 were included. Models based on extreme gradient boosting (XGB), gradient boosting machine, random forest, support vector machine, and Elastic Net logistic regression were trained. The models' performance was compared according to area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Brier score. To minimize the influence of clinical intervention, we trained the model based on undersampling set. Variables with little contribution were excluded to simplify the model for ensuring the ease of use in clinical settings. We enrolled 5705 geriatric patients into the final dataset. Of those patients, 171 (3.0%) developed postoperative MACEs within 30 days after surgery. The XGB model outperformed other machine learning models with AUPRC of 0.404(95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.219-0.589), AUROC of 0.870(95%CI: 0.786-0.938) and Brier score of 0.024(95% CI: 0.016-0.032). Model trained on undersampling set showed improved performance with AUPRC of 0.511(95% CI: 0.344-0.667, p < 0.001), AUROC of 0.912(95% CI: 0.847-0.962, p < 0.001) and Brier score of 0.020 (95% CI: 0.013-0.028, p < 0.001). After removing variables with little contribution, the undersampling model showed comparable predictive accuracy with AUPRC of 0.507(95% CI: 0.338-0.669, p = 0.36), AUROC of 0.896(95%CI: 0.826-0.953, p < 0.001) and Brier score of 0.020(95% CI: 0.013-0.028, p = 0.20). In this prospective study, we developed machine learning models for preoperative prediction of postoperative MACEs in geriatric patients. The XGB model showed the best performance. Undersampling method achieved further improvement of model performance. The protocol of this study was registered at www.chictr.org.cn (15/08/2019, ChiCTR1900025160).

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D002318 Cardiovascular Diseases Pathological conditions involving the CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM including the HEART; the BLOOD VESSELS; or the PERICARDIUM. Adverse Cardiac Event,Cardiac Events,Major Adverse Cardiac Events,Adverse Cardiac Events,Cardiac Event,Cardiac Event, Adverse,Cardiac Events, Adverse,Cardiovascular Disease,Disease, Cardiovascular,Event, Cardiac
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D016015 Logistic Models Statistical models which describe the relationship between a qualitative dependent variable (that is, one which can take only certain discrete values, such as the presence or absence of a disease) and an independent variable. A common application is in epidemiology for estimating an individual's risk (probability of a disease) as a function of a given risk factor. Logistic Regression,Logit Models,Models, Logistic,Logistic Model,Logistic Regressions,Logit Model,Model, Logistic,Model, Logit,Models, Logit,Regression, Logistic,Regressions, Logistic

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