Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies. 2022

Alastair Ronald Main, and Tariq Halasa, and Ann Sofie Olesen, and Louise Lohse, and Thomas Bruun Rasmussen, and Graham J Belsham, and Anette Boklund, and Anette Bøtner, and Lasse Engbo Christiansen
Dynamical, Systems, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit. The modelling was done in discrete time as testing was conducted on specific days. The main contribution of this study is the estimation of ASFV genotype II transmission through the air in a confined space. The estimated transmission parameters via air are not much lower than for direct contact between pigs. The estimated parameters should be useful for future simulations of control measures against ASFV.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D005838 Genotype The genetic constitution of the individual, comprising the ALLELES present at each GENETIC LOCUS. Genogroup,Genogroups,Genotypes
D000357 African Swine Fever A sometimes fatal ASFIVIRUS infection of pigs, characterized by fever, cough, diarrhea, hemorrhagic lymph nodes, and edema of the gallbladder. It is transmitted between domestic swine by direct contact, ingestion of infected meat, or fomites, or mechanically by biting flies or soft ticks (genus Ornithodoros). Swine Fever, African,African Swine Fever Virus Infection,Asfivirus Infection,Wart-Hog Disease,Asfivirus Infections,Infection, Asfivirus,Infections, Asfivirus,Wart Hog Disease,Wart-Hog Diseases
D000358 African Swine Fever Virus The lone species of the genus Asfivirus. It infects domestic and wild pigs, warthogs, and bushpigs. Disease is endemic in domestic swine in many African countries and Sardinia. Soft ticks of the genus Ornithodoros are also infected and act as vectors. Wart-Hog Disease Virus,Virus, Wart-Hog Disease,Wart Hog Disease Virus
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D013552 Swine Any of various animals that constitute the family Suidae and comprise stout-bodied, short-legged omnivorous mammals with thick skin, usually covered with coarse bristles, a rather long mobile snout, and small tail. Included are the genera Babyrousa, Phacochoerus (wart hogs), and Sus, the latter containing the domestic pig (see SUS SCROFA). Phacochoerus,Pigs,Suidae,Warthogs,Wart Hogs,Hog, Wart,Hogs, Wart,Wart Hog
D013553 Swine Diseases Diseases of domestic swine and of the wild boar of the genus Sus. Disease, Swine,Diseases, Swine,Swine Disease

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