Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes. 2022

Yogita Sharma, and Jared B Bennett, and Gordana Rašić, and John M Marshall
Divisions of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. For mosquitoes, the spatial distribution of close-kin pairs has been used to estimate mean dispersal distance, of relevance to vector-borne disease transmission and novel biocontrol strategies. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. The simulation labels each individual with a unique identification number, enabling close-kin relationships to be inferred for sampled individuals. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration for logistically feasible sampling schemes. Considering a simulated population of 3,000 adult mosquitoes, estimation of adult parameters is accurate when ca. 40 adult females are sampled biweekly over a three month period. Estimation of larval parameters is accurate when adult sampling is supplemented with ca. 120 larvae sampled biweekly over the same period. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost of genome sequencing declines, CKMR holds great promise for characterizing the demography of mosquitoes and comparable insects of epidemiological and agricultural significance.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007814 Larva Wormlike or grublike stage, following the egg in the life cycle of insects, worms, and other metamorphosing animals. Maggots,Tadpoles,Larvae,Maggot,Tadpole
D011156 Population Density Number of individuals in a population relative to space. Overpopulation,Population Size,Underpopulation,Densities, Population,Density, Population,Population Densities,Population Sizes
D005260 Female Females
D000072138 Mosquito Vectors Mosquitoes (members of the family CULICIDAE) that transmit pathogens or their intermediate forms from one host to another. Mosquito Vector,Vector, Mosquito,Vectors, Mosquito
D000330 Aedes A genus of mosquitoes (CULICIDAE) frequently found in tropical and subtropical regions. YELLOW FEVER and DENGUE are two of the diseases that can be transmitted by species of this genus. Aede
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D016013 Likelihood Functions Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Likelihood Ratio Test,Maximum Likelihood Estimates,Estimate, Maximum Likelihood,Estimates, Maximum Likelihood,Function, Likelihood,Functions, Likelihood,Likelihood Function,Maximum Likelihood Estimate,Test, Likelihood Ratio

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